2011 Wars

Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire is on the brink of what may be a very bad 2011. After a five-year delay, Côte d'Ivoire held presidential elections on Oct. 31. A peaceful first round of voting was commended by the international community, but the runoff between incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and former Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara was marred by clashes and allegations of fraud on both sides. 

The international community, including the United Nations, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), former colonial power France, and the United States, has recognized Outtara as the victor, but this has not prevented Gbagbo, with the backing of senior military officials and the Constitutional Council, from taking the oath of office. Both politicians have named prime ministers and governments as tension mounts and protests occur in the streets. The United Nations has reported disappearances, rape, and at least two dozen deaths so far.

Worst case scenario: Gbagbo stays in power, armed conflict between the supporters of each side plunges the country into civil war. Best case scenario: Gbagbo succumbs to international appeals and steps down. But it's not clear how things could get better from here. The international community has already ratcheted up pressure, including financial restrictions and travel bans. And the United Nations renewed the mandate of its peacekeeping operation there, despite Gbagbo calling for its immediate departure.

It's very possible that Cote d'Ivoire will take a turn for the worse in 2011. Gbagbo and Ouattara both have heavily armed supporters who seem ready to fight for the long haul.

Colombia

At first glance, Colombia's prospects for 2011 look bright. The country's new president, Juan Manuel Santos, has surprised many former critics with his bold reform proposals, many of which are aimed at addressing the root causes of the country's 46-year civil conflict against leftist rebels. He has mended relations with neighbouring Venezuela and Ecuador, committed to protect human rights advocates, and proposed legislation to help resettle the country's four million displaced. 

The news is not all good, however. Despite a series of strategic losses in recent years -- from territory to key leadership -- the country's leftist guerrillas, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), still maintain about 8,000 armed troops and perhaps twice that number of supporters. The rebels killed some 30 police in the weeks after Santos's inauguration, clearly to make a point. Meanwhile, new illegal armed groups have sprung up to capture the drug trafficking market, their ranks filled with former paramilitary fighters. These gangs are largely responsible for the rising incidence of urban violence; homicide rates have gone up by over 100 percent in Colombia's second city, Medellín, last year.

If these new armed groups are not contained, Colombia stands to regress in its long fight to finally root out the drug trade -- and the militancy it fuels. In such a scenario, FARC could see a comeback, restarting its campaign of terror in the country's major cities. As has been the case so often in Colombia's recent history, it would be the civilian population who would suffer most from such a return to conflict.

Yet the opposite scenario is equally likely in the coming months. Santos has worked with his counterparts in Venezuela and Ecuador to increase border surveillance, putting pressure on illegal armed groups holed up there. Under such pressure, FARC may even welcome the chance to start talks with the government about disarmament and reintegration. Much rests in this government's hands.

Zimbabwe

Keep an eye on Zimbabwe in 2011 as the country's "unity" government -- joining longtime President Robert Mugabe with opposition leader Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai -- will warrant its conciliatory name less and less by the day. The flashpoint next year? Elections. Both men want to hold them -- but they don't agree about what Zimbabweans should be voting on. 

Mugabe and Tsvangirai were never going to be fast friends. Since the two were brought together in February 2009, following a 2008 election that Tsvangirai won (but his opponent refused to recognize), Mugabe has continued to monopolize the real levers of power. Despite Tsvangirai's protests, it's Mugabe who still holds sway over the army, the security forces, and all the state functions that generate revenue.

Earlier this fall, Mugabe declared that he wanted the unity government to end in 2011. He wants full elections mid-next year, and his party, ZANU-PF, is giving every indication that it will employ the same coercive tactics used in elections past to deliver victory to Mugabe. Tsvangirai's idea of the 2011 ballot is quite different: he wants to pass a new constitution. 

The row over elections has pushed the nominal two-year truce between Mugabe and Tsvangirai toward the verge of collapse. Open violence could break out around the elections unless regional and international mediators negotiate a compromise and bring real pressure to bear on Mugabe to play by the rules.

Iraq

Iraq today is in far better shape than it was in 2007, when nearly two dozen Iraqis were dying each day in suicide bombings. But it's still far from out of the woods. And these days, it's not militants but the country's politics that post the biggest threat. The new government, formed in December after nine months of wrangling, is weak and lacks the institutions to rule effectively. Iraq's bureaucracies are nascent and fragile, and its security forces remain heavily dependent on U.S. training as well as logistics and intelligence support. Meanwhile, grievances abound -- from minority groups to repatriated refugees -- and it is unlikely that the state will be able to appease these many political demands. Sectarian violence resurfaces in fits and spurts, and is far from quashed entirely; approximately 300 Iraqis died in violence in November. 

Iraq's neighbors could exploit the country's ongoing political turmoil to gain influence and sway, particularly Iran, which has long supported Shiite militants. Insurgents also await an opportunity to capitalize on political discord. At the same time, U.S. troops will be largely -- if not entirely -- withdrawn by the end of next year. And lacking that safety net, it would take very little for the country to lapse back into conflict.

That course is not inevitable, however. More likely, Iraq will continue on its current trajectory, retaining enough stability to keep its citizens relatively safe, even if services remain deficient. But in a muddle-through scenario, it may be the best the country can reasonably hope for as it emerges from an 8-year U.S. occupation. 

Venezuela

Over the next 12 months, watch for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to take his brand of 21st-century socialism to the extremes. Having lost his majority in Parliament in September, Chávez has since been working hard to ensure that the new, opposition legislature will be irrelevant by the time it is sworn in in January. The Venezuelan president has consolidated control over the military and police, seized more private companies, and won temporary "decree powers" from the outgoing, pro-government National Assembly.

Chávez's power grab comes as the country's economic, social, and security problems are mounting. Violence has spiked dramatically in urban areas; there were some 19,000 homicides in 2009 out of a population of 28 million. In recent years, Venezuela has become a major drug-trafficking corridor, home to foreign and domestic cartels alike. State security forces have also been accused of participating in criminal activity. Meanwhile, Chávez has escalated -- rather than soothed -- the situation with fiery, partisan rhetoric that seems to egg on a violent suppression of the opposition. That message has an audience; government-allied street gangs in Caracas stand ready to defend his revolution with Kalashnikovs. 

Sudan

The fate of Sudan in 2011 will be set early, on January 9, when a referendum on southern self-determination is scheduled to take place, and which will likely result in independence for the south. Two decades of war came to an end in Sudan in 2005 with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). But as the agreement enters its last stages, however, that delicate peace will be tested. While securing the referendum has been an international priority, the long-term stability of the region relies on the ability of north and south Sudan to forge a positive post-CPA relationship. 

If matters go well, the January referendum will take place smoothly, with its results respected by the government in Khartoum. This would provide the perfect platform for negotiations on post-referendum arrangements to be successfully concluded. But should the vote go poorly, we might witness the reignition of conflict between north and south and an escalation of violence in Darfur, all of which could potentially draw in regional states. At this point, nothing is certain.

Finally, there's the tricky matter of creating a new, independent Southern Sudan, which many are already dubbing a pre-failed state. The border remains undecided -- no small matter since the contested middle ground happens to sit on a large oil field. Meanwhile in Juba, the nascent capital, institutions and services would urgently need to be built from scratch. 

Mexico

It has been four years since Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the country's drug lords. During that time, 30,000 people have fallen victim to the conflict, many of them along the northern border with the United States, largely as a result of in-fighting among rival gangs vying for control of trafficking corridors. Today, Ciudad Juarez, a border city near Texas, competes with Caracas as the most deadly city in the world. Over the last 12 months, the violence has spread to Mexico's economic and cultural hubs that were once considered immune from drug infiltration. To the north, Mexico's organized crime routes now reach into nearly every metropolitan area of the United States. 

In short, despite a $400 million annual aid package from the United States, and big boosts in funding for the military, it's far from clear whether the government of Mexico is winning -- or can win -- this battle.

During the last year in particular, Calderón has been criticized for the conduct of the narco war. Not only is it difficult to pinpoint clear progress, but for many, life has visibly deteriorated since the crackdown began. Twenty times more Mexicans have died during the last four years than Americans have in the entire war in Afghanistan. Two gubernatorial candidates and 11 mayors have been assassinated. The press is under increasing pressure to self-censor. One paper in Ciudad Juárez went as far as asking, in an open letter to the cartels, what it was that they were allowed to publish. 

"Winning" would require a hard look at the Mexican military and police, which have been credibly accused of committing flagrant abuses while fighting the drug gangs. The judicial system likewise needs strengthening to bring the guilty to fair trial. And, of course, much depends on Mexico's northern neighbor: America remains the largest market for drugs in the world, and so long as U.S. users demand product, the cartels will keep the supply flowing. 

Guatemala

Mexico's drug war is also sending shock waves throughout Latin America. Under pressure from the Mexican state, the most infamous cartels are seeking friendlier ground and finding it in Guatemala, where the state is weak and the institutions are fragile. In the worst-case scenario for 2011, Guatemala could be host to a perpetual turf war of attrition between these various cartels, all competing to control drug-trafficking routes -- and increasingly human-trafficking corridors -- to the United States. 

So far, Guatemala's best ally in fighting back has been the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a tribunal-like institution set up to root out corrupt and cartel-tainted officials. But its star prosecutor recently resigned, claiming that the political leadership was thwarting his work.* Presidential elections are slotted for August, but early polls suggest a polarized nation, with around 20 candidates and no clear front-runner. That's just the sort of uncertainty that cartels are good at exploiting. 

Haiti

Nature had it in for Haiti in 2010, but it may be politics that batters the small island country in the coming year. The poorest country in the Western Hemisphere began the year with a devastating January earthquake that killed more than 300,000, a deadly cholera outbreak, and a tortuously slow reconstruction process, which remains way off the pace and beset with difficulties. A November 28 presidential election, which should have led to the election of a new, legitimate government, remains wedged in an impasse over allegations of fraud. The winner won't be decided until a run-off vote is held in January, but protests have already erupted over what some saw as the unfair exclusion of certain candidates in the second round. At least a dozen lives have been lost in the street clashes so far. 

Already, Haiti was on the verge of a social breakdown. Today, more than 1 million Haitians remain homeless in the ruined capital. The government, whose ranks and infrastructure were devastated by the earthquake, has no capacity to deliver services or provide security. And international aid groups and U.N. peacekeepers can only plug those gaps temporarily. Relief work has also been hampered by a lack of funding. Despite big promises from international donors, dollars have been slow to trickle into the country.

This precarious situation will make for an enormous challenge if and when a new government does at last come to power next year. The run-off election will mark a year since the earthquake, with little improvement in the everyday lives of Haitians, whose patience is running out. 

Tajikistan

Tajikistan, a land of striking beauty, grinding poverty, and rapacious leaders, could well become the next stomping ground for guerrillas -- Central Asians and other Muslims from the former Soviet Union -- who have been fighting alongside the Taliban for years and may now be thinking of returning home to settle scores with the region's brutal and corrupt leaders. 

Run since 1992 by Emomali Rahmon, a post-Soviet strongman, Tajikistan has been hollowed out by top-to-bottom corruption. A U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks has an American diplomat noting that "From the President down to the policeman on the street, government is characterized by cronyism and corruption. Rahmon and his family control the country's major businesses, including the largest bank, and they play hardball to protect their business interests, no matter the cost to the economy writ large." 

Not surprisingly in such an environment, most public services -- including the health system -- have all but collapsed. The economy survives on remittances from migrant laborers in Russia, and roughly half of the country's population lives below the poverty line. It is a dangerous brew for instability.

In recent months, the Tajik government has attempted to crack down against Islamist insurgent groups who have crossed the border from northern Afghanistan, but to little effect. There is rising concern in Washington that Tajikistan will become the new theater of operations for Islamic militants, and might offer a convenient route for insurgent penetration of other volatile or vulnerable parts of Central Asia -- first off, Tajikistan's desperately weak neighbor, Kyrgyzstan.

In the coming year, it's easy to imagine Tajikistan sliding further and further toward a failed state as the government quietly cedes control of whole sections of the country to militants. Even if the Afghan militants were out of the picture, however, Tajikistan's democratic prospects would look bleak. As the American cable put it, "The government is not willing to reform its political process."

Pakistan

It's hard to remember a time when Pakistan didn't seem on the brink of collapse. This coming year will likely be no exception. The country faces a humanitarian crisis in its mid-section where floods displaced 10 million people, a security threat from terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil, and political instability from a weak administration still trying to wield civilian control over the all-powerful military. 

The most immediate priority is assisting the millions of people who are still displaced following floods in Pakistan's countryside. The cities could also use attention; 2010 saw the biggest spike in urban terrorist attacks since the war next door in Afghanistan started. Insurgent and terrorist groups now have strongholds not just in the northwestern tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, but in urban centers such as Islamabad, Karachi, Quetta, and Lahore. Yet despite the flurry of attacks on its heartland, Pakistan still seems reluctant to confront the insurgents with full force. So far, military operations against terrorist groups have vacillated between the extremes -- either heavy-handed and haphazard force or ill-conceived peace deals. Further, the criminal justice system has failed totally to preempt, investigate, and convict militants. Violence may well spike again in 2011. 

Meanwhile in Islamabad, the civilian leadership under President Asif Ali Zardari has grown unpopular and weak, plagued by corruption and an inability to maintain control of the military leaders. Civilian control over national security policy, in both the domestic and external domains, could help put the criminal genie back in the bottle. Stronger civilian leadership of the humanitarian agenda would also prevent the millions living in regions devastated by the massive monsoon floods of 2010 -- in the conflict-hit zones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and also in the Pakistani heartland -- from becoming a soft target for militants. However, clashes between the judiciary and Zardari, and the military's propensity to destabilize elected governments, could result in the democratic transition faltering and even failing, with grave consequences for an already fragile state. 

Somalia

If Somalia keeps heading south in 2011, the entire country could fall under Islamist insurgent control. Up to now, the country's U.N.-backed transitional government has withstood attacks from Islamist insurgents only thanks to protection from an African Union peacekeeping force; it remains weak and divided, a national government in name alone. Further, the capital city of Mogadishu is under perpetual siege by militants, a reality that has sent millions fleeing from their homes in this year alone. When the government does make gains on the insurgents, they are counted in mere city blocks, captured one by one.

The largest and most alarming insurgent group is al Shabab, which professes to desire the creation of a strict, conservative Muslim state and portions of whose leadership pledged allegiance to al Qaeda in early 2010. The group already controls most of southern and central Somalia and is currently trying to capture Mogadishu. Meanwhile, Somalia's neighbors fear that al Shabab will begin to export terrorism, as it did for the first time last summer in a series of bombings in Uganda during the World Cup. 

That said, Somaliland in the country's northwest is an island of stability and democracy, and Puntland in the northeast is relatively peaceful, if troubled by Islamists and pirate gangs.

The best hope for Somalia is for its forces to exploit the divisions among the insurgency to recapture territory, particularly in Mogadishu. International support, already forthcoming, will help. But so would a lot of luck.

Lebanon

Still smarting from a war with Israel in 2006 that left a precarious balance of power between Christians and Islamic fundamentalists, Lebanon today is arguably more than ever on the brink. 

In the coming months, an international tribunal is expected to issue indictments against Hezbollah members for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a step that could spark sectarian strife throughout the country. Most alarmingly, the indictments could unravel a fragile inter-Lebanese power-sharing agreement reached in Doha in 2008. In that scenario, Lebanon could see a return to political assassinations, all-out sectarian strife, or attempts by Hezbollah to assert greater political or military control. None of these scenarios are far-fetched in the coming year; indeed, they have all happened in Lebanon's very recent past. The fact that it is so hard to imagine both how the current status quo may survive and how exactly it will unravel says volumes about the state of uncertainty and shakiness which afflicts the country. 

In addition to Lebanon's internal political unraveling, the country risks sliding back into war with Israel. Nearly five years after the 2006 war, relations between the two countries are both exceptionally quiet and uniquely dangerous -- for the same reason: On both sides of Israel's northern border, the build-up in military forces and threats of an all-out war that would spare neither civilians nor civilian infrastructure, together with the worrisome prospect of its regionalization, have had a deterrent effect on all. Today, none of the parties can soberly contemplate the prospect of a conflict that would come at greater cost to themselves, be more difficult to contain, and be less predictable in outcome than anything they witnessed in the past. 

But that is only the better half of the story. Beneath the surface, tensions are mounting with no obvious safety valve. The deterrence regime has helped keep the peace, but the process it perpetuates -- mutually reinforcing military preparations, Hezbollah's growing and more sophisticated arsenal, escalating Israeli threats -- pulls in the opposite direction and could trigger the very result it has averted so far.

Nigeria

Nigeria's 2010 was about as rough as they come: The country's president disappeared on medical leave -- and then died -- hundreds were killed in sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians in the country's middle belt, and a rebel amnesty in the oil-producing Niger Delta region completely unraveled, leading to a string of bombing attacks and kidnappings. 

And 2011 also looks rocky for Africa's most populous country. A presidential election is slated to be held in the spring; the last election in 2007 left international observers awestruck by flagrant intimidation and ballot stuffing. Voting in Nigeria has never been a pretty affair, and despite promises to reform the electoral system, the old habits of intimidation and vote buying die hard. After the polling does takes place, post-election turmoil is also entirely possible, particularly if one region or group is unhappy with the result. Nigeria's many regions -- north, south, west, east, and everything in between -- count on office-holders to pass out patronage and favors, so the stakes of losing are high.

Whoever it may be, Nigeria's new leader will have urgent tasks ahead. The rebellion in the Niger Delta is flaring up again, with militants promising to continue attacking oil facilities and government offices. A once effective anti-corruption commission has lost its momentum. And vast economic inequality is the order of the day, leaving oil wealth in the hands of a few while the majority of the country's 140 million people languish.

Guinea

Guinea enters 2011 on a hopeful path. In December, the West African country inaugurated its first-ever elected leader, Alpha Condé. After decades of strongman rule, followed by a 2009 coup, this new leadership seems nothing less than miraculous. 

Yet the back-story offers some sense of just how deep tensions run. After the country's president died in December 2008, a small group of military leaders took over, declaring themselves the new leaders of Guinea. So corrupt and ineffectual had the former president been that many welcomed the junta's rule. But it soon became apparent that the military president, Moussa Dadis Camara, was equally inept. The pinnacle of that failure came in September 2009, when his troops massacred over 150 peaceful protestors in a local stadium.

International condemnation flooded the country, putting pressure on the junta to hold elections. Meanwhile, Camara was shot by a fellow junta member and sent to Morocco for treatment. His successor, Gen. Sekouba Konate, appointed a civilian interim leader and organized the recent election. 

But throughout the junta's brief reign, the military took the opportunity to enrich and entrench its role in the economy, a fact that remains today despite the nominal civilian leadership. Guinea's military now has a strong stake in controlling mineral wealth -- the country is the world's largest producer of bauxite -- and other major industries. In the past, it has used strong-arm tactics to get its way, economically and otherwise, and this old habit will surely die hard. Having tasted the fruits of power under the junta, the military may not so easily return to its barracks.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Years after the official end of the Second Congo War, which raged from 1998 to 2003 and was responsible for up to 4.5 million deaths, whole swathes of the enormous Central African country remain in upheaval. In the eastern Kivu provinces, an undisciplined national army battles with rebel groups for territorial control. Amid the frenzy of violence and rape that follows in their path, the world's largest U.N. peacekeeping force is at a loss to protect even those civilians that live close to its bases. 

Lurking behind the conflict is Congo's vast natural wealth, the very embodiment of the so-called resource curse. Government, militants, private corporations, and local citizens all angle to tap the gold, cobalt, copper, coltan and host of other minerals under the country's soil -- which are focused in the east and south of the country. Meanwhile, the central government lies nearly 1,000 miles to the west, separated from its eastern provinces by impenetrable jungle, a different language, and ethnicity. Rebel groups still roam the eastern border regions, exercising their authority with impunity and cruelty. Neither the government nor rebel groups have the strength to win, but both have the resources to keep fighting indefinitely. 

Adding to the misery are appalling humanitarian conditions. Only a third of Congolese in rural areas have access to clean water, an estimated 16,000 children die each year before ever reaching the age of five, and life expectancy has actually fallen by five years since 1990.

Unless the Congolese and regional governments try different tactics, there is no end in sight to Congo's troubles. In an ideal world, military campaigns in North and South Kivu provinces would be suspended until better-trained troops can be deployed -- troops than can carry out targeted operations while protecting civilians. Meanwhile, governments in Africa's Great Lakes region should convene a summit and negotiate agreements on economic, land, and population-movement issues. A worst-case scenario would see more of the same: a mosaic of armed groups in eastern Congo continue to fight indefinitely, with civilians paying a terrible price.

Source - Foreign Policy

Southern Sudan: starting from scratch

Southern Sudan's secession presents a delicate mix of risk and opportunity for both the government and its people.

As expected, South Sudan has voted overwhelmingly for independence from the north. The new state will face huge challenges quite apart from the disputed areas, southern Sudan already has some of the world's worst indicators for health, education and social welfare, and much of the population is already dependent on outside food aid. Some have already suggested it could be the world's first "pre-failed state".

But pre-judging the country is unfair, says Wol Mayer Ariec, secretary for political and social affairs at the new government of South Sudan diplomatic mission to the UK.

"Why do people talk about us being a pre-failed state when so many supposedly developed countries are currently having to be bailed out due to the financial crisis? Do we describe them as failed states?" he says.

"Of course we recognise that we face tremendous challenges across the board, but surely we shouldn't be pre-judged, before we've even had the opportunity to start. We have begun to establish institutions and provide basic services, but we really are starting from scratch. After decades of war, destruction and neglect and the mass displacement of entire populations, this is essentially Year Zero in terms of development for south Sudan".

"Given the opportunity of peace and stability, the resolve of our leadership, the support of the people of south Sudan and the continued generous assistance of the international community, I am sure that we can overcome these challenges."

However, Ariec is clear that he does not want southern Sudan to become dependent on aid, and wants the country to "stand on our own feet" as soon as possible. He believes it to be in "everyone's interests" to ensure a peaceful separation of Sudan that leaves two viable new states that are economically successful.

"With peace, security and stability, we will be able to prioritise our agricultural economy and intend to use our future oil revenues to assist rural productivity. We need to invest in developing our people's capacities by improving education and health services, communications and rural infrastructure so that we can achieve agricultural self-sufficiency.

"Our entire emphasis is on development, and we are eager to attract inward investment to help us realise our full potential. We are rich in land, people and resources and there are tremendous opportunities for those willing to invest in the world's newest emerging economy. We hope that the donors understand what we are trying to do and will continue to support our efforts."

It is indeed true that south Sudan is resource-rich, and oil will perhaps be the most thorny issue to be thrashed out between the new government and Khartoum. Three-quarters of Sudan's oil reserves are likely to end up in the new southern Sudanese state. As Madeleine Bunting wrote earlier this month, a new oil revenue-sharing agreement will now need to be negotiated, and it appears the south will be pushing for a greater share of the wealth.

"Clearly we are going to have to come to an agreement over future share of oil revenues. The government of south Sudan's budget is almost entirely dependent on oil receipts - some $2bn a year. We pay the same amount or more to Khartoum each year. We are not greedy but the people of South Sudan expect a greater share. The pipeline and refineries are in north Sudan so their people will continue to share the benefits of our oil, but these benefits need to be proportionate. We can't be expected to continue paying half our revenue to Khartoum."

And Ariec rejects any suggestion that Khartoum's estimated $35bn debt should be shared equally with the south. "Personally I don't believe we owe debts to anyone but the people of south Sudan. We owe them peace and security, accountability, good governance and development; we owe it to them to end hunger and poverty. How can we repay them if we also have to repay the debts incurred by Khartoum? How can we be expected to stand on our own feet if we have to repay the costs of decades of war waged against us?"

Ariec accepts that the months ahead will not be easy, but he remains optimistic.

"There are still several issues to be resolved, including the status of Abyei and the contested areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well as border demarcation, citizenship and future sharing of resources. There is a framework agreement for discussion of post-referendum issues but exact details still need to be worked out. We hope the NCP will continue to apply the same generous spirit that they have shown in allowing the referendum to take place on time and will help us resolve all the outstanding issues before July, in accordance with the comprehensive peace agreement."

He adds: "Although we are now poised for secession, we realise that this historic moment is just the first step in the long process of achieving freedom, reconstruction and prosperity for the people of south Sudan. It is a new beginning but we know we have a long road ahead of us.

Peter Moszynski

Source - Guardian

Will no-one shed a tear for Belgium?

A country that doesn’t exist anymore doesn’t need a government anymore either. Is the Belgian political crisis a portent of the shape of things to come in Europe? asks the FAZ.

Dirk Schümer

For over 200 days now Belgium’s politicians have been trying in vain to put together a new government. Can the country do without a central authority? Amid the ongoing euro crisis, can Europe easily ride out a power vacuum in Brussels of all places? Or will the monarchy valiantly leap into the breach? Actually, none of the above.

Even the wiliest negotiators around can’t seem to come up with a mutually acceptable compromise anymore to unravel the old Gordion’s knot of power-sharing between the central government and the Flemish and Wallonian parts of the country. The situation has reached a total impasse. Not only experts in constitutional law, but even hardened Belgian citizens are asking what elections are held for in the first place if those elected can’t even form a functional administration.

Embittered Belgians relish the prospect of two new nations

Given the choice, many would prefer the pugnacious voting system depicted in Asterix in Corsica. In the comic book take on the Mediterranean island, the ballots are thrown into boxes, which are promptly flung into the sea. Then there’s a punch-up and the toughest pugilist gets to be chief. Such a democratic free-for-all would probably be necessary if the Flemish employers association were to have their heart’s desire: a strong government with a mandate to reform the state so as to secure sound economic policies, a balanced budget and workable solutions for the future of the job market, unemployment benefits and pensions.

Most Belgians would probably only snigger sardonically at this wish list. The fact is the infighting political establishment is so far from addressing any of those issues that they have long since openly begun talks to split up the two parts of the country for good.

More and more embittered Belgians relish the prospect of two new nations at Europe’s administrative core, while the neighbours are rubbing their eyes in disbelief. Hasn’t a nation whose French speakers let its Dutch speakers bankroll them on a mammoth scale, even while brazenly ignoring Flemish culture and history, lost its raison d’être?

EU bears a striking resemblance to Belgium

How to run Europe’s capital – an historically Flemish and now mostly French-speaking city wedged in between Wallonia and Flanders – in nuts-and-bolts terms of transport, schools and urban planning: that is the subject of the most convoluted passages in the various draft compromises, all of which have foundered on the privileges of the French-speaking community.

Looking at this Kafkaesque muddle, it’s hard to believe suchlike trifles could end up tearing apart the lively capital of a multilingual, multicultural economic zone stretching from Lapland to the Canary Islands, from Ireland to the Danube Delta. How can Europe consider itself a bastion of linguistic pluralism and cultural openmindedness when militant Francophonie is banging away at its ideological drums on the EU capital’s borders? And how are Cypriots and Turks, Irish and Britons, Catalans and Castilians, Basques and Frenchman, South Tyroleans and Italians, Hungarians and Slovaks, Latvians and Russians ever to come to terms if the Belgians bury the great diversity project after nearly 200 years?

Without any real democratic mandate, Belgium handled its turn at the EU presidency [second half of 2010] like clockwork – what with a Belgian, Herman van Rompuy, in pole position as European Council president. And that’s no coincidence. With its inscrutable federal power-sharing and language accords, the country has bred a species of administrators who are savvy, infinitely patient, and quite at home in the ginormous engine rooms of the EU deal-making factory. In a way, the EU bears a striking resemblance to this Belgium.

Apparently the EU doesn’t keep strong nation-states together, but wobbly constructs, as can be observed in real time in fast-eroding countries like Greece or Ireland that are now run de facto by EU cost-cutting committees. Does that go to show that, in this age of automated administration, a weak state doesn’t need a government anymore, just some transfer payments? Are politicians nothing but limelight hogs for the show business of electioneering and press conferences?

The government deadlock actually jeopardises the economy, not the functioning of federal power-sharing systems that were put in place long ago. Ultimately, the disintegration of this model European state now only hinges on the medium-term costs of a breakup. In emotional terms, no-one sheds a tear for this Belgium anymore.

With the EU currently vetting new candidates for accession, namely Iceland and Croatia, and with its single currency crumbling before its very eyes, all this also goes to show that everything is in flux on this malleable continent. Nations are not eternal, though languages and traditions turn out to be extremely resilient. In a globally networked economy, every now and then one state or another can indeed become superfluous. Politics in present-day Belgium, at any rate, seems to be reduced to a mise-en-scène of symbolism and spectacle.

Translated from the German by Eric Rosencrantz
Source - Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Frankfurt

Albert II

The most powerful monarch in Europe

The last three and a half years of institutional chaos in Belgium have turned Albert II into “the only king with wide-ranging powers in Europe”, considers El Mundo. In the absence of a permanent government seven months after the elections, King Albert II recently asked caretaker prime minister Yves Leterme to cut the 2011 budget deficit. This “unprecedented gesture” coincides with increasing market pressure over Belgium’s inability to handle its high public debt, but in the country’s long-running political crisis the king had previously “mediated between political groups, named transition cabinets, given instructions to acting politicians and convinced leaders to continue negotiating”. El Mundo explains Albert II “already had experience in reigning without government”, because in 2007 it took Leterme nine months to become prime minister, but now “the missions he entrusts are more precise and more political”. The Spanish daily concludes that the Belgian king “has seen his powers reinforced in practice by the paralysis of a country unable to negotiate conciliation between the Flemish and French-speaking populations”.

Why the U.S. Should Cheer Tunisia's Dangerous Revolution

What are we to make of the tumult in Tunis? Few uprisings in recent memory have materialized as suddenly and produced results as swiftly as Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution. Just one month ago, former President Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali and his clan luxuriated in the kind of outrageous fortune that only two decades of U.S.-backed, kleptocratic rule can buy: beachfront villas, pet tigers, ice cream flown in from St. Tropez. Now they can't even keep their rooms at Euro Disney. The fall of such a corrupt and repressive dictator has set off celebrations among activists throughout the Middle East. Even the White House found itself cheering the ouster of a man it once considered a reliable ally. "Tunisia's future will be brighter," President Obama said, "if it is guided by the voices of its people.

Maybe. But the euphoria in Tunis has been short-lived. The forty-eight hours following Ben Ali's abdication were marked by riots, gun battles, prison breaks and not one, but two, changes of government. The collapse of authority has encouraged the country's security forces to settle scores on their own. It's possible Tunisia may eventually transform itself into a stable, representative democracy. But the country is likely in for a period of chronic upheaval and political strife - the conditions in which militants and strongmen thrive.

And so the Tunisian revolution should give us pause. For a time after 9/11, the U.S.'s foreign policy in the Middle East was guided by the "liberty agenda": a belief that implanting democracy in the Arab world would help combat Islamic radicalism. Historic, free elections have indeed come off in places like Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories - and yet radicalism remains. If anything, democracy has made anti-Western forces more assertive, not less, and exacerbated political tensions rather than resolving them. As a result, foreign-policy realists - including many in the Obama Administration - tend to treat events like the Tunisian revolt with caution. In their eyes, further democratization in the region could destabilize traditional U.S. allies, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, at a time when Washington needs their help to root out al-Qaeda and contain a rising Iran.

And yet the velocity of the Tunisian revolution suggests that anti-establishment forces in the region may be stronger and more pervasive than many in the West had assumed. Ben-Ali's overthrow also shows that the support of the United States is no longer sufficient to protect Arab strongmen who lack popular legitimacy. Whether the U.S. likes it or not, Tunis-style clashes between young, restless Arab populations and their sclerotic, Western-backed leaders are bound to become more common.

So whose side should we be on? Perhaps the biggest mistake made by advocates of the liberty agenda was their claim that democratization would reduce the threat of terrorism. In fact, allowing people to vote in elections has little impact on whether or not they will become terrorists. The frustration that fuels militancy in the Arab world has less to do with politics than with the region's stagnant growth relative to the rest of the world - the result of outdated education systems, gender inequality and underinvestment in industries other than oil. Finding solutions to those problems is critical to the life prospects of tens of millions of Arabs. But doing so will be impossible so long as decision-making power remains in the hands of the same ruling clans who allowed their societies to fall so far behind in the first place.

The reasons for seeking freer and more democratic Arab societies have less to do with our future than with theirs. At this point, the U.S. can't openly stump for democracy in the Middle East. Our influence is at a low ebb. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Washington's strong support for Israel have tarnished our image in the region. Among Arabs, the most admired world leaders are those who most consistently stand up to the U.S. and Israel. But simply because our name is mud doesn't mean democracy's must be too. Tunisia's revolutionaries, after all, didn't need our endorsement to throw off the yoke of despotism. The experience of the last decade has convinced Americans that we shouldn't be in the business of imposing democracy at the point of a gun. But it's never been in our interests to stand in the way of democracy either.

Lending moral support to activists in Tunis or Cairo or Riyadh won't on its own make the U.S. any more secure. But it would provide an opportunity for us to realign our policies with our ideals and, perhaps, earn some trust with a generation of Arabs yearning to seize control of their destinies. "I can't believe my eyes!" one Bahraini blogger tweeted about Tunisia. "An Arab nation woke up and said enough!!!" It's time that we did too. (Comment on this story.)

Ratnesar, a TIME contributing editor-at-large, is a Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation and the author of Tear Down This Wall: A City, a President, and the Speech That Ended the Cold War. His column on global affairs appears every Monday on TIME.com.

The Tunisia Effect: Will Its "Hunger Revolution" Spread?

By Angela Shah / Dubai Sunday, Jan. 16, 2011

No group is watching the events unfold in Tunisia more closely than fellow Arabs, most of whom live under autocratic governments and are feeling the same economic pinches of bleak job prospects and high food prices. Ali Dahmash, an activist who runs a social media agency in Amman, called it a "hunger revolution." Says Dahmash, "This is not just about politics and having a kind of freedom of speech or religion. This came out of despair. It was because of the economy."

Mishaal Al Gergawi, an Emirati commentator and businessman, agrees. "Tunisians and Algerians are hungry. The Egyptians and Yemenis are right behind them," he wrote Sunday in a Dubai newspaper column. He referred to the young Tunisian vegetable seller who immolated himself in the town of Sidi Bouzid several weeks ago to protest police preventing him from doing business, thus setting off the revolt. "Mohamed Bouazizi didn't set himself on fire because he couldn't blog or vote. People set themselves on fire because they can't stand seeing their family wither away slowly, not of sorrow, but of cold stark hunger."

Over the weekend, the social networking site Twitter exploded with posts from both the Arab world and its disapora in English, French and Arabic. They cheered on the Tunisian protesters and speculated which Arab leader might be the next to go. Posts quite openly called for the ouster of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak or Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. "Algeria is even worse than in Tunis. The police will actually go ... well, it's very vicious," Dahmash says. "In Egypt, the president has been there for 27 years in a [perpetual] state of emergency. With that, they can do anything in the country."

Like Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt have economies plagued by high food prices and a lack of jobs. On Sunday, protests broke out in Libya despite a speech by Gadhafi that rebuked Tunisian protesters for impatience, saying they should have waited for Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down in three years, as he had said he would. At the Tunisian embassies in Amman and Cairo, protesters gathered to express their frustrations while supporting the movement in Tunisia. One twitter poster even advised Queen Rania of Jordan that she should go palace-hunting in Jeddah — the coastal Saudi city is where Ben Ali fled Friday night after fleeing the country.

Still, for all the demonstrating in Arab capitals and candor on social websites, some Arabs are still reluctant to speak publicly of regime change in the Arab world. "The leaders are all genuinely paying close attention to this," says a Syrian executive who lives in Dubai. "They're thinking, 'Holy moley, how are we going to manage this?'"

Dahmash agrees. Ben Ali fled Tunis on Friday, and by Saturday morning, Dahmash says, food prices in the Jordanian capital had decreased by about 5% — probably upon orders of the government. More than the number, the reduction "is a sign of fear, in my opinion," he says.

Expatriate Tunisians like Walid Cherif are watching events unfold at home with a mixture of excitement and disbelief. "If you had asked me a week ago, none of us would've even imagined this happening," he says. "I'm very proud of it." He's not sure, however, that events in Tunisia will lead to revolt in the rest of the Arab world. Tunisia has always been different from its Arab siblings, he says. "Tunisia is known as one of the most progressive Arab countries in the world," We're the only country where polygamy is illegal in the Muslim world. Did that happen in other Arab countries? No.

In the meantime, Tunisia is still searching for a new person to lead it. Since gaining independence from France in 1962, the country has had only two leaders. During the past weekend, it had three. The army has imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew, and there have been reports of violence. Fires in two prisons have killed dozens. Despite the current chaos, Dahmash says he thinks the revolt will lead to a stable, legitimate government. Unlike much of the Arab world, Tunisia, he says, "has well-developed institutions. The people are mature and well-informed.

That should help what's being called the "Jasmine Revolution" to flower, compared to the unrest and violence that has plagued Iraq since U.S. soldiers forced Saddam Hussein from power. Cherif, who grew up in Tunis and left North Africa in 1996 to study for an M.B.A. at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., says he believes the events of the weekend are the start of a peaceful, more inclusive future for his country. "We're sure we're never going to have a dictator in the future, because whoever is going to come as president knows the power of the people," he says. "If they want to be a regime in total control like before, they'll have to think about it twice."

Source - Time (UK)

Польські волонтери зібрали майже 10 мільйонів євро для хворих дітей

Варшава – Варшавську неурядову організацію «Оркестр святкової допомоги» називають польським феноменом. Сьогодні вранці ця організація побила свій власний рекорд із попередніх років: упродовж доби вона зібрала на добродійні цілі майже 40 мільйонів злотих, тобто приблизно 10 мільйонів євро. На зібрані по всій країні гроші «Оркрестр святкової допомоги» придбає дороге медичне обладнання для дитячих лікарень.

Учора вся Польща вже вдев’ятнадцяте розцвіла червоними сердечками. 120 тисяч волонтерів «Оркестру святкової допомоги» вийшли на вулиці польських міст і сіл, аби збирати у перехожих гроші на допомогу важкохворим дітям. Кожен жертводавець отримав від волонтера червоне паперове серце, що символізує милосердя. Таких сердечок волонтери роздали майже 30 мільйонів.

Шоумен Єжи Овсяк, незмінний лідер «Оркестру», пояснює успіх свого проекту тим, що люди максимально поінформовані про те, на що саме організація витрачає зібрані пожертви. Він каже, що здебільшого поляки нескупі, та вони набагато охочіше дають гроші тим організаціям, котрі вміють донести до широких мас населення інформацію про цілі та результати своїх благодійних проектів. За словами Овсяка, саме у такій максимальній прозорості використання коштів полягає секрет успіху «Оркестру святкової допомоги». Процес підрахунку зібраних «Оркестром» грошей та їхнього використання постійно висвітлюється у польських медіа.

Малюків рятували шарф Далай-лами та кубик від самого Рубика

Аби заохотити поляків до благодійності, «Оркестр святкової допомоги» організовує по всій країні харитативні концерти, під час яких популярні співаки й актори закликають до милосердя та щедрості.

Учора в Польщі відбулося 800 таких концертів. Цікаво, що значні суми вдається зібрати під час оригінальних аукціонів. Причому речі для продажу на добродійних польських аукціонах надають не тільки поляки. Скажімо, цього року на аукціон потрапили шарф Далай-лами, кубик Рубика, підписаний його винахідником Ерно Рубиком, а також теніска футбольного клубу «Барселона» з автографами найкращих футболістів світу. Під час дотепних аукціонів можна було придбати вечерю в товаристві популярної співачки, або ж відреставрований літак з 1930-их років.

Характерно, що до організації цього добродійного заходу охоче долучаються органи державної влади та місцевого самоврядування. Цього року свою допомогу в збиранні грошей запропонував навіть голова Європарламенту Єжи Бузек. За організований Бузеком дводенний візит до Європейського парламенту один із польських добродіїв заплатив на аукціоні понад 4 тисячі євро.

Організаторів масової добродійної акції охоче підтримують учасники різноманітних товариств, що пропагують здоровий спосіб життя. Скажімо, жителів Кракова до щедріших пожертв заохочували члени клубу зимового плавання, так звані моржі.

«Процес збирання грошей був вдалим, атмосфера була гарячою, наші серця підігріли воду у Віслі аж на пів градуса. Ми збирали гроші для «Оркестру» вперше, та будемо це робити до кінця світу, а навіть на один день довше», – розповіла одна з членів клубу.

«Оркестр» милосердя стає візиткою Польщі

Учасники цьогорічної акції милосердя, організованої «Оркестром святкової допомоги», звертають увагу на її особливий настрій. Втомлені минулорічними потрясіннями поляки охоче єдналися навколо радісного процесу збирання грошей для хворих дітей.

«Цьогорічна акція – вияв того, що ми не сваримося, а єднаємося. Після минулого року, що був для поляків суцільною травмою, така акція, як фінал «Оркестру святкової допомоги», усім нам була дуже потрібною. Ми вкотре продемонстрували, що діяьність «Орекстру» – послідовна, вона є візиткою Польщі», – каже член клубу.

Про це ж говорить один із організаторів акції милосердя в місті Білосток, ректор Вищої школи публічної адміністрації Єжи Копаня. За його словами, у збиранні грошей в Білостоці, окрім поляків, взяли участь молоді люди, які приїхали на навчання до Польщі з-за кордону.

«Студенти-іноземці здивовані, бо виявляється що ми, поляки, вміємо єднатися не тільки навколо сумних подій, але й радісних. Вміємо бути разом тоді, коли потрібно домомогти людям у їхньому нещасті», – каже ректор Копаня.

Загалом, за 19 років своєї діяльності «Оркестр святкової допомоги» придбав на зібрані гроші 22 тисячі дорогих медичних приладів, які передав дитячим лікарням. Крім того, як наголошують польські оглядачі, ця феноменальна неурядова організація виховала покоління поляків, котре охоче, без примусу й зайвих нагадувань займається добродійністю.

Автор - Ростислав Крамар

Джерело - Радіо Свобода

Algeria has let its rioting youth down

Look at the faces of the rioters currently spreading unrest among the cities and towns of Algeria and you might be struck by one very obvious fact – just how youthful they are.

The median age in the north African country is 27, with more than 75% of the population under 30. Little surprise, then, that the majority of those protesting against soaring food prices and mass unemployment are barely more than teenagers.

Many will have little personal recollection of the bitter civil war, which divided the country for over a decade up until the early 2000s, let alone the colonial struggle against France, which ended with independence in 1962.

Yet there is no doubt that these two violent struggles are the biggest influences on the consciousness of Algeria's young rioters. When rule from Paris ended, successive Algerian governments did their utmost to forge a national identity free from western influence. After 132 years of bowing to a foreign power, complete independence became the rallying cry. Forced Arabisation saw foreign companies and investment rejected as everything was done to forge a free nation.

English, the international language of business, was ignored in schools and colleges, as were "foreign", modern subjects such as commerce and marketing.

Suspicion of overseas capitalism became even more intense during the civil war as Islamic rebels battled with an elected government, and every side strived to assert their nationalist credentials so as to win popular support. The result was entire generations growing up surrounded by violence, and not being equipped with the economic know-how to escape it. In turn, administrations did little to create a sound social infrastructure within which democracy could flourish.

"Algeria is one of the most youthful countries in the world, yet young Algerians like me are completely unqualified to compete in the modern world," said Lahcène Bouziane, 24.

"People of my generation were brought up to be proud Algerians and Arabs, but not to contemplate succeeding in the global economy.

"When our own, insular economic system begins to fail, as it is at the moment, we have no chance to escape. This boils into frustration and anger."

Bouziane spoke to me on Saturday from the capital city, Algiers, where President Abdelaziz Bouteflika held crisis talks about the price of staple foods such as flour, cooking oil and sugar doubling in the past month.

The situation intensified on Friday when Azzedine Lebza, 18, became the first fatality of the riots when he was hit by a police bullet in Ain Lahdjel, around 250 miles south-east of Algiers. Another demonstrator, 32-year-old Akriche Abdel-Fattah, was later killed in Bou Smail, some 30 miles from the capital. Five fatalities have now been reported and a thousand protesters have been arrested.

Rather than acknowledge the underlying causes of the resentment, Bouteflika concentrated on slashing taxes and import duties, seeking a short-term fix to a growing crisis. Lack of jobs, government services, affordable houses and soaring inflation have all combined with a failing education system to create a bleak future.

Despite Algeria's abundance of natural gas and oil – the country has grossed more than $600bn during Bouteflika's 12 years in power – swathes of the country live in poverty, many in slums on the outskirts of cities like Algiers.

It is for this reason that thousands of young people attempt to leave every year, most boarding small fishing boats to try to reach countries like France, Italy and Spain, where they hope they will better their situation and alleviate their family's poverty back home by sending regular amounts of cash.

This has given rise to the term "harragas" – which literally means "those who burn" borders. Upon arrival in Europe they also "burn" their documents and try to start their lives again.

"There is nothing for them in Algeria," a university professor told me. "Parents regularly see their young ones disappear – into the black economy in other parts of the world or, worse than that, many are drowned at sea.

"Those that remain are now fighting the authorities. Algeria has completely let them down – all they have really learned is that violence is everywhere."

Author - Nabila Ramdani

Source - Guardian

Earth must prepare for close encounter with aliens, say scientists

UN should co-ordinate plans for dealing with extraterrestrials – and we can't guarantee that aliens will be friendly

World governments should prepare a co-ordinated action plan in case Earth is contacted by aliens, according to scientists.

Scientists argue that a branch of the UN must be given responsibility for "supra-Earth affairs" and formulate a plan for how to deal with extraterrestrials, should they appear.

The comments are part of an extraterrestrial-themed edition of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A published today. In it, scientists examine all aspects of the search for extraterrestrial life, from astronomy and biology to the political and religious fallout that would result from alien contact.

"Will a suitable process based on expert advice from proper and responsible scientists arise at all, or will interests of power and opportunism more probably set the scene?" asked Professor John Zarnecki of the Open University and Dr Martin Dominik of the University of St Andrews in the introductory paper. "A lack of co-ordination can be avoided by creating an overarching framework in a truly global effort governed by an international politically legitimated body." The pair argue that the UN has a ready-made mechanism for such a forum in its Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (Copuos).

Member states of Copuos should put "supra-Earth affairs" on their agenda, say the scientists, and establish structures similar to those proposed for dealing with threats from near-Earth objects, such as asteroids, that might be on a collision course with our planet.

According to Simon Conway Morris, a professor of evolutionary palaeobiology at Cambridge University, anyone planning for alien contact should prepare for the worst.

Evolution on alien worlds, he said, is likely to be Darwinian in nature. Morris argues that life anywhere else in the universe will therefore probably have important similarities with life on Earth – especially if it comes from Earth-like worlds that have similar biological molecules to ours. That means ET might resemble us, warts and all, with our tendencies towards violence and exploitation.

"Why should we 'prepare for the worst'? First, if intelligent aliens exist, they will look just like us, and given our far from glorious history, this should give us pause for thought," wrote Morris in the journal's special issue.

Ted Peters, a professor of systematic theology at the Pacific Lutheran Theological Seminary in California, considered what might happen to the world's religions in the event of ET making contact. Conventional wisdom suggests that terrestrial religion would collapse if the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) were confirmed, he wrote

"Because our religious traditions formulated their key beliefs within an ancient world view now out of date, would shocking new knowledge dislodge our pre-modern dogmas? Are religious believers Earth-centric, so that contact with ET would de-centre and marginalise our sense of self-importance? Do our traditional religions rank us human beings on top of life's hierarchy, so if we meet ETI who are smarter than us will we lose our superior rank? If we are created in God's image, as the biblical traditions teach, will we have to share that divine image with our new neighbours?"

His conclusion, however, is that faith in Earth's major religions would survive intact. "Theologians will not find themselves out of a job. In fact, theologians might relish the new challenges to reformulate classical religious commitments in light of the new and wider vision of God's creation."

"Traditional theologians must then become astrotheologians ... What I forecast is this: contact with extraterrestrial intelligence will expand the existing religious vision that all of creation – including the 13.7bn-year history of the universe replete with all of God's creatures – is the gift of a loving and gracious God," he speculated.

Source - Guardian

Young people are fleeing Portugal in droves. But is this a bad thing?

The rise in emigration might just herald the emergence of a more self-sufficient, curious, and less spoiled generation

In Portugal, having an optimistic start to 2011 hasn't been easy. Along with Greece and Ireland, Portugal is currently one of the three weakest economies in the eurozone: the press seems primed for our downfall. The minority socialist government led by José Sócrates says the budget deficit, thought to be 7.3% of GDP in 2010, needs to decrease to 4.6% this year.

Experts expect that Portugal will soon be forced to access the IMF financial stability fund, and Teixeira dos Santos, the finance minister, recently went on a "successful" visit to China in order to secure financial support. The country seems to be on sale. Organisations and enterprises are shrinking their budgets. Unemployment rates are at 10.9%. My friends in Lisbon tell me: "Don't come back. Things are so depressing over here."

Many choose to put their feet on the ground and move away to another country. The young are running fastest of all, and they are making experts in Portugal worry about a new emigration wave, which is seen as the biggest since the 1960s. More than two million Portuguese are estimated to be living abroad. Recent research by the economist Álvaro Santos Pereira says that around 6.5% of the 10 million population have left the country between 1998 and 2008 – a number that could be even higher in the next census in 2011. What is different from the previous wave of migration in the 1960s is that these new emigrants are most likely young, highly skilled, and choose new countries like Spain and the UK. A 2006 report by the World Bank warned that Portugal was suffering from serious brain drain, with 13% of graduates emigrating.

Conventional wisdom will tell us that these kind if emigration rates create at least two problems for a country: brain deficit, since there isn't a significant highly skilled immigration to fuel the workforce, and population shrinkage, because the birth rate is slowing down. Both facts can have a major long-term impact on social security funds.

And yet, it's worth asking if emigration on this scale is always necessarily a bad thing. Consider, for one, that one traditional reason behind Portugal's economic weaknesses has been our laissez-faire attitude to work. Statistics portray a youth that is averse to risk-taking, values comfort and longs for security. The Portuguese social structure is shaped by dependent children or married people.

A Dutch friend was telling me the other day that he left his parents' home at 18 – in Portugal, almost 60% of young adults between 18 and 34 still live at their parents, one of the EU's highest rates according to a 2008 Eurostat survey (in the UK it is about 40%). Telling a Portuguese son or a daughter to find his or her own apartment at 18 would be unthinkable, the equivalent of abandoning a child in the wild. There is no tradition of flatsharing; when middle-class twentysomethings get out of their parents' house, it's usually to get married.

The high number of young people leaving the country might indicate that something is changing in the Portuguese mindset. It might just herald the emergence of a more self-sufficient, curious, and less spoiled generation.

The European Union has had a major impact in those born in the 1980s, a generation who grew up during the economic growth of the 1990s and have paid their bills with the euro since 1999. Enrolling in international scholar programmes such as Erasmus has become common; plus, foreign students come and go to Portuguese universities, and international networks expand. Travelling is much more regular for them than it was for me – my first flight was at 18, which makes my nephews laugh. The world, and especially Europe to where this new emigration wave is heading, has become a less frightening place. Might this generation have the competitive edge that has previously been lacking in the country?

The question remains whether these highly skilled workers would want to go back to Portugal once they've found success abroad. The scientist António Damásio or the artist Paula Rego are only two of many successful Portuguese emigrants who have decided to settle abroad permanently. A side effect of our Roman Catholic heritage is that we aren't very good at praising people for their successes and rewarding merit. Portuguese elites are suspicious and small; they are distant from the rest of the population, which in turn does not trust them either – as shown in research conducted by the sociologist Manuel Villaverde Cabral in 2004. We have problems with words like meritocracy and competitiveness, seen as part of a vocabulary used by capitalists or by over-achievers.

How would those who went abroad and increased their cultural capital fit in a milieu that ejects outliers when it is supposed to appreciate them? That's the conundrum. The question of how to convert the value of an individual's journey into a public benefit has yet to be solved in Portugal. 

Source - Guardian
Author - Joana Gorjão Henriques

Давайте слухати реальність

Французький філософ П’єр Хасснер про український націоналізм, європейську безпеку та приреченість імперії в добу глобалізації.

55 років тому французький філософ Реймон Арон у своїй книжці «Опіум інтелектуалів» дезавуював найбіль­­ші ілюзії європейських інтелектуалів, своїх сучасників: їхню беззастережну віру в комунізм та революцію пролетаріату. Найбільші надії, як виявилося, вели до реальної безнадійності. Якраз у той час, коли писався «Опіум», юний П’єр Хасснер був учнем мосьє Арона. Так він пройшов сильну й сувору школу мислення, кілька років якої можуть визначити шлях, котрим рухатиметься людина впродовж усього свого подальшого наукового життя, коли учнівство буде далеко позаду. На щастя, допоки філософи переймають один в одного естафету поколінь, корабель «любові до мудрості» далі розсікає хвилі життя. Про це й не тільки Тиждень говорив із самим П’єром Хасснером.  

У. Т.: Пане Хасснер, розкажіть, будь ласка, в якому середовищі ви формувалися, як почали займатися політичною філософією?

– Моє дитинство минуло в Румунії. Добре пам’ятаю нацистську окупацію в Бухаресті. Як єврей, я не міг навчатися в румунській старшій школі. Тоді вступив до місцевого французького ліцею. У 1944 році небезпека нібито минула. Нацисти покинули країну, але прийшли комуністи. А в 1948-му ми виїхали до Франції. У свої 15 років я багато вже знав про тоталітаризм у дії, про комунізм. Мого батька арештовували кілька разів, нам загрожувала депортація. І мене шокувало те, як багато французьких студентів та інтелектуалів співчували комуністам. Вони були в полоні ілюзій щодо СРСР. Випадково я натрапив на кілька статей Реймона Арона. Він описав саме те, що я бачив у Румунії. Коли мені було 19, я став його учнем, відвідував відповідні класи, семінари. Два роки ми разом проводили з ним семінари в Інституті політичних наук. Я вивчав філософію, цікавився міжнародною політикою, темою війни та миру, свободи й тоталітаризму, Східною Європою, Росією. Протягом останніх 20 років намагаюся знову повернутися до філософії. Я також написав багато статей про роль пристрастей у міжнародній політиці, тобто роль приниження, гордості, образ, помсти, які відчувають політики й народи.

На вулицях Києва та Єрусалима

У. Т.: У 1952-му антрополог Леві-Стросс підготував для ЮНЕСКО доповідь «Раса та історія». Це створило прецедент співпраці інтелектуала та міжнародної організації. Політичні філософи справді можуть мати голос на політичній арені?

– Клод Леві-Стросс належав до того самого покоління, що й Реймон Арон, Жан-Поль Сартр. Він відмовився від рамок політичної філософії, тобто цікавився політикою як такою. Став антропологом, позиціонував себе як науковця, що вивчає структури ритуалів, сімейних взаємин у різних суспільствах. Мене дуже надихали його праці про трайбалізм, канібалізм. Ми вважаємо, що це жах, а Леві-Стросс доводив, що тюрми в західних суспільствах – ось справжній жах, тобто те, що вони роб­лять із людиною, гірше, ніж навіть канібалізм. ЮНЕСКО вивчає відмінності між культурами. Леві-Стросс стверджував, що певна дещиця нетолерантності потрібна, щоб зберегти свою ідентичність.

Взагалі ж політична філософія у Франції відіграла велику роль, часом доволі негативну. Саме Реймон Арон розірвав замкнене коло політико-філо­соф­ських дискусій і сказав дуже просту річ: давайте слухати про Радянський Союз не те, що нам каже філософія історії, а те, що до нас промовляє сама реальність. Він чітко це сформулював: сам Карл Маркс вважав, що режими треба оцінювати не за тим, що вони говорять, а за тим, чим вони є насправді, як діють.
У Франції в наші дні політичні філософи вже не відіграють великої ролі. У Німеччині є потужні постаті, як-от Юрген Хабермас. А загалом у Євросоюзі немає особливого інтересу до політичної філософії. У США цікавий феномен неоконсерваторів, які вплинули на політику Джорджа Буша-молодшого. Серед них є учні американського філософа Лео Штрауса, але він не рекомендував поширювати демократію силовими методами по всьому світу.

У. Т.: Ви називали Самуеля Хантінгтона Шпенглером після холодної війни. Його концепція про зіткнення цивілізацій матеріалізується на вулицях Єрусалима, а що з нею відбувається на вулицях Києва? Тут вона тьмяніє чи навпаки?  

– Американський політолог мав рацію, що політика ідентичності набуватиме все більшого значення. Вона прийде на зміну класовому протистоянню. У до­­бу глобалізації об’єктивні культурні вододіли розмиваються, але люди бояться втратити свою ідентичність й апелюють навіть до незначних відмінностей. Він вважав, що православний світ варто залишити Росії, Азію – Китаю, Захід має очолити Америка. За логікою Хантінгтона, треба було б вигнати всіх арабів з Ізраїлю. Але що чекає на тих арабів, які народилися на території Ізраїлю і які не втекли звідти після 1948-го? Якщо їх усіх виселити, приміром, до Йорданії, утвориться суто єврейський острів посередині Сходу. Це не дуже перспективно. Єрусалим схожий на Нью-Йорк чи Стамбул – дуже мультикультурне місто. Якось, ідучи його вулицями, мені здалося, що я опинився в Румунії – навколо говорили румунською. Крім того, там є проблеми між ашкеназами (євреї – вихідці з Америки та Європи) та сефардами (євреї, що походять із Піренейського півострова). Ашкенази зробили дуже багато для держави на початку її створення. Є також поділ між секулярними та релігійними євреями.

Тепер щодо України – тут справді все інакше. Я побував у вашій країні тричі, щоразу лише по кілька днів і в інтернаціональному оточенні конференцій. Мимоволі порівнюю її з балканськими країнами, які мені довелося відвідати. Я помітив, що українці не дуже націоналістичні. І нині, коли Росія нарікає, що у вас панують націоналістичні ідеї, я пригадую, як на паспортному контролі в аеро­порті «Бориспіль» мені сказали «спасибо» російською. Якщо ви поїдете до Хорватії, Боснії та Герцеговини чи Сербії, то там вам постійно наголошуватимуть на відмінностях між їхніми мовами, хоча вони й схожі між собою. Мені цікаво, чи українці справді достатньо переймаються питанням своєї ідентичності? У цьому сенсі важливі події сьогодення: спро­­би Росії нав’язати вам свою інтерпретацію Голодомору.

Без золота й прогресу

У. Т.: У європейській цивілізації можна виокремити два типи ідентифікації в часі: золоті часи, які були в минулому і в які треба прагнути повернутися, та лінійний час прогресу, виплеканий Просвітництвом. Україна як постколонія не має відчуття ні золотого минулого, ні прогресивного майбутнього. Що робити?

– Але і в інших країнах Європи не все так однозначно з відчуттям часу. Починаючи з Великої революції (1789–1799), французький націоналізм спирався на універсалістські ідеї: вони хотіли принести свободу всій Європі. Як наслідок – мало хто намагався відшукати золоті часи в минулому, на які варто орієнтуватися. У Франції сформувався спрямований у майбутнє погляд на речі. Німці, з одного боку, більше дивляться в минуле, де знаходять риси своєї давньої німецькості, а з іншого – мають свою версію модерності. Я не можу сказати, що Італія чи Швейцарія так сильно орієнтовані на майбутнє.

Разом із тим обидва концепти – золоті часи й ідея прогресу – занепадають. Мій колега професор Стенлі Гофманн ще 20–30 років тому писав, що європейці більше не знають ані свого минулого, ані свого майбутнього. Створення Європейського Союзу стало найвагомішою подією в часопросторі. Він має зробити європейців зовсім не такими, якими вони були раніше. Це виглядає так: були громадянські конфлікти, тоталітаризми, війни, і нині ми робитимемо те, що їх унеможливить. Справді, Німеччина та Франція більше не воюють. Але не все так просто, хоча економічно це працює.

З 17 років я був європейським федералістом, однак сьогодні втратив віру. Важливі рішення й далі приймаються на рівні держав. Добре, що ми віднедавна маємо Верховного представника з питань спільної зовнішньої політики та політики безпеки ЄС Кетрін Ештон. Проте є негативні тенденції. Щодо України та її відносин із Росією ми майже не бачимо якихось конкретних дій. Але ж ті країни, які були частиною Російської імперії, досі мають проблеми з визначенням власної ідентичності та свободою.

У. Т.: Які, на вашу думку, безпекові виклики стоять нині перед Європою?

– На цьогорічному Київському безпековому форумі я цитував американського дипломата та історика Джорджа Кеннена, який сказав, що Росія не може бачити своїх сусідів інакше як васалами чи ворогами. Це головний виклик для європейської безпеки, і він дуже конкретний. Специфічно європейська безпекова проблема, окрім тероризму, імміграції, енергетики, – це Росія як остання імперія, що не визнає нової ситуації. Зрозуміло, що великі потуги зостають-­­
ся великими потугами. США теж не хочуть залишати, приміром, кубинське питання. Вони блокували Кубу протягом останніх 60 років, і це в принципі нормально, коли Штати намагаються зберегти свій вплив та мати економічні переваги. Але ідея сфер привілейованих інтересів, що передбачає монополію впливу, дуже загрозлива для європейської безпеки. Не забуваймо, що такі відносини між Берліном та Москвою спровокували Другу світову війну.

Ніщо не гарантовано

У. Т.: Сьогодні українці зневірюються не лише у власній владі, а й у Заході.

– Зізнаюся відверто, я почуваюся ніяково, ко­­ли мені тре­­ба говорити людям отут, у Києві, на конференції чи на зустрічі в кни­­гар­­ні: ви маєте стояти за Європу, за демократію, коли насправді на Заході нині Україною особливо ніхто не цікавиться. Звісно, там усі б воліли, щоб ви були демократичною державою, але ЄС не хоче далі розширюватися. Попереду ще довгий період, коли Україна (не кажучи про Грузію, Молдову чи Білорусь) не належатиме ані до ЄС, ані до НАТО, але все ж таки, якщо вона розвиватиметься в демократичному напрямі й збереже свою ідентичність, то матиме шанси віддалитися від Росії. Українці повинні почуватися українцями незалежно від розчарування в Помаранчевій революції. Навіть сьогодні, здається, вже є певні тертя між Віктором Януковичем та Кремлем, вашого президента висміюють на російському ТБ.

У.Т.: Чи ви поділяєте думку, що Захід занадто наївний у ставленні до нинішньої влади в Україні?

– Ні, насправді в Європі не мають ілюзій: відомо, що 2004-го Янукович фальсифікував президентські вибори, цьогорічні місцеві перегони в Україні також позначені серйозними порушеннями. А президентські вибори-2010, на яких він переміг, не були підроблені. Я помітив, що багато ваших співвітчизників уже шкодують, хоча за управління Ющенка та Тимошенко не проводилися реформи й точилися безкінечні чвари. Не погоджуюся з тим, що сьогодні Україна полишена Росії, але очевидно, що ваша доля як сусіда РФ не є головним пріоритетом Заходу. Головний пріори­тет – економічна криза, війна в Афганістані, іранська загроза. Видається, що у вас попереду важкі часи. Лише люди, які походять із Східної Європи, як-от я, стурбовані тим, що відбувається. До речі, на Безпековому форумі в Києві я був приємно здивований. Вагався, чи варто було мені їхати на цей захід, адже до нього причетний Віктор Пінчук, український олігарх. Коли я був у Москві на схожій акції, що проводилася мало не таємно, представники руху «Наші» стукали нам у двері. У Києві загальний тон дискусій був критичний. Журналіст Віталій Портников, екс-міністр закордонних справ Борис Тарасюк були дуже критичними. Взагалі в Києві атмосфера розкутіша, тут відчувається опозиційність.

У.Т.: Які наслідки може мати для Європи злиття державної влади, енергетики та медіа в Росії та інших країнах?

– Я почуваюся радше песимістом, аніж пророком. Ви не можете склеїти розбите скло. Російська імперія приречена. Я пригадую Чехословаччину 1968–1969 років, тоді говорили, що Москва має перейняти досвід реформ Олександра Дубчека. Росія дещо змінилася за Горбачова, а потім Радянська імперія розпалася. Є шанс, що одного дня криза змусить РФ змінитися. Нині є страх перед зростанням впливу Китаю та триває економічна криза, але я думаю, що США знову усвідомлять, наскільки важлива для них Європа, справді демократична частина світу. Треба, щоб Україна інтегрувалася до спільного європейського ринку.

Візи – це також важливе питання (шлях до їх скасування може тривати й десять років). Україна – європейська держава. Я переконаний, що колоніалізм як феномен відійшов у минуле безповоротно. І сьогодні, коли росіяни прагнуть контролювати транзит енергоносіїв, хочеться розраховувати на те, що це суперечить інтересам українських олігархів. Що може допомогти вашій країні? Мирний, інтелектуальний опір та реформи. У часи глобалізації не можна мати державу, абсолютно вільну від корупції, і неможливо бути егоцентричною імперією. Для України першочерговими є такі речі, як візи й економічна співпраця з Європою. І взагалі, європейцям треба не бойкотувати режим Януковича, а прагнути бути присутніми у вашій країні якомога ширше. Я не вважаю, що успіх Україні гарантований, хоча минуло майже 20 років відтоді, як ви здобули незалежність. Ніхто навіть у США не впевнений у завтрашньому дні. Останні опитування громадської думки виявили, що американці песимістично дивляться в майбутнє. Але треба пам’ятати: цінність свободи залишатиметься основоположною і в ХХІ столітті

Біографічна нота П’єр Хасснер Французький політичний філософ, експерт із міжнародних відносин. Народився 31 січня 1933 року в родині румунських євреїв, що сповідували католицизм. У Парижі вивчав філософію в École normale supérieure (Вища нормальна школа). Був учнем Реймона Арона та Лео Штрауса, всесвітньо відомих філософів минулого століття. Директор із досліджень (на пенсії) Центру міжнародних наукових досліджень (CERI) у Франції та Національної фундації політичних наук. Викладає в Європейському центрі філіалу американського Університету Джона Гопкінса в Болоньї (Італія)

Праці останнього десятиліття:

«Виправдати війну? Про гуманність контртероризму» (спільно з Жиллем Андреані та ін., 2005)
«Терор та влада. Насильство та мир ІІ» (2003)
«Війна та суспільства. Держави та насильство після холодної війни» (спільно з Рональдом Маршалом та ін., 2003)
«Вашингтон та світ. Дилеми супердержави» (у співавторстві з Жюстіном Вессом, 2003)
«Насильство та мир. Про атомну бомбу та етнічну чистку» (2000)

Дністровий Анатолій Безп’ятчук Жанна

Джерело - Український Тиждень 

Ailing Greece Struggles with a Flood of Illegal Immigrants

By JOANNA KAKISSIS Joanna Kakissis

Rasha had a simple dream when she left Gaza's al-Shati camp a month ago. "Job, food, house," she says. "Or at least hope for this." Europe, she had heard, was full of hope. So Rasha, 25, and her husband Ali, 31, sold their belongings and borrowed from friends and relatives to pay a smuggler nearly $2,000 to help them and their 4-month-old son Yusef get there. One November night, they crossed the Evros River that marks the land border between Greece and Turkey. At dawn, Greek police found them at a dilapidated train station and sent them to the Fylakio detention center near the northeastern Greek city of Orestiada.

After three days at the center, which Rasha says was so crowded with migrants that she couldn't see the floor, the family got out. Now they're outside Fylakio waiting to board a bus bound for Athens, where they know no one. "I am hoping," says Rasha, as Ali holds their exhausted son. "And I am so happy."

Considering the rise in migrants traveling to Greece, and the poverty and bureaucracy that keeps them stuck there, Rasha's optimism might soon disintegrate. So far this year, more than 90% of illegal migrants to Europe have entered through Greece, according to Frontex, the E.U.'s border-patrol agency. Until recently, Italy, France and Spain were the most popular entry points for illegal immigration into the continent. But increased coast-guard patrols in the past couple of years have blocked routes by sea, forcing migrants to find a new way in. "Smugglers were being arrested, prosecuted and imprisoned, so criminal networks shifted their route to this area around Orestiada," says Frontex spokesman Michal Parzyszek.

Alarmed by the sudden influx of illegal migrants pouring into Greece, the E.U. sent Frontex forces to Orestiada in November to help Greek police patrol an especially troublesome eight-mile (13 km) section of the 128-mile (200 km) land border between Greece and Turkey. Some 31,400 people crossed just that portion of the border in the first nine months of 2010 - more than the number of illegal crossings through all of the Canary Islands in 2006, a peak year for immigration to Spain.

Frontex says almost half of the migrants say they're Afghans, who pay smugglers around $3,000 to help them escape a country where per capita income is only $900. But for Jamir Khan, 22, it wasn't money that sent him to Greece - it was war. The skinny, tough car mechanic from Laghman province in eastern Afghanistan - a place he describes as "all fight, all the time" - learned his trade in Manchester, England, where he lived illegally for a few months about four years ago.

Then police raided the house he was sleeping in and deported him. "I told them, 'Give me a chance! I'm not a Talib! I am working!'" he tells TIME. "I told them I was going to come back." True to his word, he arrived at the Fylakio detention center in mid-November after his family took out loans to pay a smuggler $3,000. He's broke, so he's walking nearly 600 miles to Athens.

The journey to Orestiada is not without its dangers. Scores have died crossing the border from Turkey over the years, many while trying to get to the other side of the Evros River. According to Frontex, at least 44 migrants have drowned there this year. That's nearly twice as many as the number that died last year, says Mehmet Serif Damadoglou, the mufti of the mixed Christian and Muslim prefecture of Evros. He buries the dead in a makeshift cemetery on a hill near his village of Sidero.

Surrounded by 140 small mounds of dirt, each marking a grave, Damadoglou recalls meeting the distraught parents of a 16-year-old Somali girl who drowned in the Evros this summer. He remembers how the mother hugged the earth that held her daughter's body. "They could not swim, but they were trying to because their small inflatable boat overturned. The last time [the mother] saw her daughter, she heard someone yell, 'Help! Help!' and then the river took the girl away," Damadoglou says, sighing. "They came here to visit her and pray." He says he cringed when they told him they were heading to Athens to find jobs. "It's very hard in Athens, because right now even the Greeks don't have work," he says. "Migrants can fall into an abyss there and never get out."

Though most migrants go to Europe through Greece with the hopes of traveling on to countries like Sweden or Britain, where jobs and benefits are more plentiful, many run out of money and find themselves trapped in Athens. That's what happened to Tahar Zarouk, a 33-year-old Tunisian from the southeastern city of Medenine. He subsists on a free daily meal of soup, salad and bread prepared by the capital's Greek, Anglican and African churches. The food is distributed in a drab courtyard on Sophocleous Street, a drag in central Athens infested with drug dealers. He sleeps in a nearby alley and says he's been beaten up several times by anti-immigrant thugs. Standing in a food line on a damp December day, Zarouk says he's desperate to work. "Every day, Greeks tell me to leave," he says. "But I have no money. Where am I supposed to go?"

Others wait in Athens for asylum that will likely never come. The U.N. says Greece has more than 52,000 asylum requests waiting to be processed. Only 0.3% of those applications are granted, compared with an average of 31% in Britain, France, Germany and Sweden, the U.N. says.

Jobless and often homeless, migrants face increasing hostility from Greeks despairing over the country's rising unemployment. Supporters of the far-right, anti-immigrant group Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) regularly trawl through some central Athens neighborhoods brandishing clubs and beating up homeless migrants. In a troubling sign that relations between Greeks and migrants are souring further, Athenians elected Chrysi Avgi's president to the city's municipal council in October. "It's disillusioning for them, to see the Europe of their dreams be like this," says Father Jimoh Adebayo, a Nigerian minister who helps at the food line on Sophocleous Street. "They have sold everything back home and they see that here, there is nothing." Adebayo says he sees more people in the food line every week, including Greeks who have lost homes or jobs.

But Rasha knows none of this as she's leaving the Fylakio detention center and boarding the bus to Athens with about 80 other migrants. The Greek bus driver wears rubber gloves to handle their tickets; the seats are covered in plastic wrap. Tickets cost 60 euros, or $80, each, but Rasha can pay - she stashed euros left over after paying the smuggler in a money belt she wore under three layers of clothing. "Ali and I will have jobs, maybe at a shop, and we will have a little house, and the baby can sleep," she says. As the bus pulls away, Rasha waves through a window. She's the only one smiling.

Source - Time (UK)

У Британії випустили підручник для батьків-геїв

Для батьків-геїв видано спеціалізований підручник з догляду за дітьми. Спонсори проекту - британське добродійне товариство геїв і лесбійок Stonewall і Лондонський банк сперми.

Книга дає детальну інформацію для геїв, як можна стати батьком, у тому числі детальні дані про донорство сперми і сурогатне материнство. Також наведені всі посилання на зміни законодавства Великої Британії, що дозволяють одностатевим парам виховувати дітей. Як заявив глава Stonewall Бен Саммерскілл, зараз британським геям надано кращий момент для створення повноцінної сім'ї, оскільки всі закони на їх боці. 


Окрім опису процедур догляду за дитиною, в підручнику наводяться результати дослідження вчених Кембріджського університету про те, що поведінка дітей, які виросли в сім'ях  з одностатевими батьками, не відрізняється від поведінки дітей зі звичайних сімей. Як заявив глава прес-служби Stonewall Гері Нанн, випущений посібник покликаний прискорити процес створення повноцінних гей-родин.


Відзначимо, що за даними на 21 травня 2010 року, з 3200 усиновлених у Великій Британії дітей лише 60 були усиновлені одностатевими парами.


Джерело : Освітній портал

Національне радіо визначило найграмотніших українців

Сьогодні свої нагороди отримали переможці Всеукраїнського радіодиктанту національної єдності, який 9 листопада у день української писемності та мови транслювали на хвилях Національного радіо. Без жодної помилки написали диктант лише троє учасників із понад 11 тисяч – священик, коректор та учений біолог. А лише одну помилку допустили 177 учасників.

Священик Олександр Овчінніков із Білоцерківського району Київської області став одним із трьох переможців всеукраїнського диктанту національної єдності. Отець Олександр не допустився у тексті жодної помилки. 


«Я перейшов на українську мову всього 10 років тому, розповів священик. – А мені вже далеко за 50. Я походжу з російської родини, батьки мої родом з Дону та Волги. Тому з одного боку важко для мене було писати диктант, а з іншого – ніякого геройства, бо в мене ж дружина галичанка, яка призвичаїла нас правильно ставитись до рідної землі. І нам іншого не треба. Необхідно усвідомлювати, що лише так себе має поводити українська родина».


Учений біолог долучила до написання диктанту усю родину

Також бездоганно написали радіодиктант коректор за фахом Ольга Голобородько з Києва та учений біолог Олена Андрущенко, яка долучила до написання диктанту майже усю свою родину – бабусю, сина та доньку. Саме 7-річна Софійка Андрущенко і стала наймолодшою учасницею всеукраїнського диктанту. Звичайно, школярка допустилась помилок, адже не так давно лише навчилась писати, але слухати диктант по радіо Софійці дуже сподобалось. «Було цікаво. Мені мама не допомагала, я сама писала, – говорить дівчинка. – Мені сподобалось усе!» 


Переможці конкурсу, які допустились не більше однієї помилки, отримали призи від Національного радіо – радіоприймачі, аудіодиски з записами голосів класиків української літератури: Андрія Малишка, Максима Рильського, Олеся Гончара та інших. Також переможці отримали аудіо-версію «Кобзаря» Тараса Шевченка, словники та книжки відомих українських мовознавців Алли Коваль та Олександра Пономаріва. Усі призи Національна Телерадіокомпанія України розішле переможцям поштою.


Також найграмотніші учасники отримали грошові призи від Ліги українських меценатів. А родина Андрущенків, які разом писали диктант, отримали ще й спеціальний приз і від видавництва «А-БА-БА-ГА-ЛА-МА-ГА», які особисто їм подарував директор видавництва Іван Малкович. «Ця родина прекрасний взірець для наслідування. Тому що тепер по телебаченню показують, що лише погане щось у нас відбувається. А такий приклад, який ви показали, що ви усією родиною писали диктант, нехай його наслідує уся Україна», – наголосив Іван Малкович.


На «полонених» верблюдах спіткнулись майже усі

Найтиповішими помилками стали пунктуаційні знаки, а також більшість учасників не вжили лапки, у виразі «полонені» верблюди. Слово «полонені» вживалось у переносному значенні.

А загалом, організатори говорять про високий рівень знання української мови усіма, хто писав диктант. Участь у акції взяли понад 11 тисяч осіб із України та з-за кордону.


Координатор акції, головний редактор освітньо-виховних програм Національного радіо Лариса Тарасова розповіла: «Я не хотіла щоб наголошували, що ми лише перевіряли грамотність. Ми таким чином об’єднали усіх українців. Дивіться, українці з Таїланду, Сполучених Штатів Америки, Бельгії, Німеччини та Росії брали участь. Зрозуміло, що коли люди стільки років вже живуть закордоном, то у них листи так і починались, що вони не претендують ні на які нагороди, вони просто хочуть бути разом зі своєю історичною батьківщиною, разом зі своїм народом».


Найстарішому учаснику 92 роки

Найстарішим учасником всеукраїнського диктанту національної єдності виявився 92-річний Іван Шматько із Мелітополя. А найактивнішими виявилися слухачі Києва та Львівської області. За словами Лариси Тарасової, всеукраїнський диктант – у першу чергу патріотична акція.

Диктант усією Україною писали вже в 10-й раз поспіль. Такі акції також популярні у Польщі, Франції, Китаї.


Джерело : Радіо Свобода