Southern Sudan: starting from scratch

Southern Sudan's secession presents a delicate mix of risk and opportunity for both the government and its people.

As expected, South Sudan has voted overwhelmingly for independence from the north. The new state will face huge challenges quite apart from the disputed areas, southern Sudan already has some of the world's worst indicators for health, education and social welfare, and much of the population is already dependent on outside food aid. Some have already suggested it could be the world's first "pre-failed state".

But pre-judging the country is unfair, says Wol Mayer Ariec, secretary for political and social affairs at the new government of South Sudan diplomatic mission to the UK.

"Why do people talk about us being a pre-failed state when so many supposedly developed countries are currently having to be bailed out due to the financial crisis? Do we describe them as failed states?" he says.

"Of course we recognise that we face tremendous challenges across the board, but surely we shouldn't be pre-judged, before we've even had the opportunity to start. We have begun to establish institutions and provide basic services, but we really are starting from scratch. After decades of war, destruction and neglect and the mass displacement of entire populations, this is essentially Year Zero in terms of development for south Sudan".

"Given the opportunity of peace and stability, the resolve of our leadership, the support of the people of south Sudan and the continued generous assistance of the international community, I am sure that we can overcome these challenges."

However, Ariec is clear that he does not want southern Sudan to become dependent on aid, and wants the country to "stand on our own feet" as soon as possible. He believes it to be in "everyone's interests" to ensure a peaceful separation of Sudan that leaves two viable new states that are economically successful.

"With peace, security and stability, we will be able to prioritise our agricultural economy and intend to use our future oil revenues to assist rural productivity. We need to invest in developing our people's capacities by improving education and health services, communications and rural infrastructure so that we can achieve agricultural self-sufficiency.

"Our entire emphasis is on development, and we are eager to attract inward investment to help us realise our full potential. We are rich in land, people and resources and there are tremendous opportunities for those willing to invest in the world's newest emerging economy. We hope that the donors understand what we are trying to do and will continue to support our efforts."

It is indeed true that south Sudan is resource-rich, and oil will perhaps be the most thorny issue to be thrashed out between the new government and Khartoum. Three-quarters of Sudan's oil reserves are likely to end up in the new southern Sudanese state. As Madeleine Bunting wrote earlier this month, a new oil revenue-sharing agreement will now need to be negotiated, and it appears the south will be pushing for a greater share of the wealth.

"Clearly we are going to have to come to an agreement over future share of oil revenues. The government of south Sudan's budget is almost entirely dependent on oil receipts - some $2bn a year. We pay the same amount or more to Khartoum each year. We are not greedy but the people of South Sudan expect a greater share. The pipeline and refineries are in north Sudan so their people will continue to share the benefits of our oil, but these benefits need to be proportionate. We can't be expected to continue paying half our revenue to Khartoum."

And Ariec rejects any suggestion that Khartoum's estimated $35bn debt should be shared equally with the south. "Personally I don't believe we owe debts to anyone but the people of south Sudan. We owe them peace and security, accountability, good governance and development; we owe it to them to end hunger and poverty. How can we repay them if we also have to repay the debts incurred by Khartoum? How can we be expected to stand on our own feet if we have to repay the costs of decades of war waged against us?"

Ariec accepts that the months ahead will not be easy, but he remains optimistic.

"There are still several issues to be resolved, including the status of Abyei and the contested areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well as border demarcation, citizenship and future sharing of resources. There is a framework agreement for discussion of post-referendum issues but exact details still need to be worked out. We hope the NCP will continue to apply the same generous spirit that they have shown in allowing the referendum to take place on time and will help us resolve all the outstanding issues before July, in accordance with the comprehensive peace agreement."

He adds: "Although we are now poised for secession, we realise that this historic moment is just the first step in the long process of achieving freedom, reconstruction and prosperity for the people of south Sudan. It is a new beginning but we know we have a long road ahead of us.

Peter Moszynski

Source - Guardian