OVER 40 SOVEREIGN NATIONS MAY EMERGE UP TO 2030 ON THE WORLD POLITICAL MAP

Reasons to foster the emergence of newly independent states:

1.     Ethnic (multinational countries have a higher risk of separatist tendencies)

2.   Language (patchy language picture is often regarded to be as a destabilizing factor for nation’s unity)

3. Religion (struggle for faith is a catalyst of many wars, which used to lead to newly independent states)

4.     Economic (too rich/too poor regions of the country may often be felt tempted by longing to become even richer or to correct the “unfair” discrepancies)

5.     Geographical distance

6.     Political (voluntary will of the mother country)

7.     Social readiness to be independent

8.     International pressure

The new most prominent actors are indicated below:

    1.    Southern Sudan will secede from Northern Sudan due to religious (Southern Sudan is mainly Christian and anemic), racial (unlike Arab Sudan, southern part of Sudan is a part of so called black Africa), socio-economical and political (low level of inclusion in central politics of Sudan, already institutionalized regional bodies) reasons. It will occupy 640,000 square kilometers, being populated by almost 8,3 million people. Meanwhile, landlocked Southern Sudan will expand the list of the poorest countries in the world. The principal consequences of Southern Sudan’s Independence for international relations would be the start of Sudan’s break-up and possible destabilization in neighboring Ethiopia.

2.     Greenland, Denmark occupies more than 2,166 million square kilometers that is more than Mexico’s territory. With a population of 56,452 (January, 2010 estimate) it would be the least densely populated country in the world. Reasons for secession are ethnic (indigenous people comprise the prevalent majority), geographical (distant location from its mother country Denmark) and political (voluntary will of Denmark to grant independence to Greenland). The main outcomes of Greenland’s independence would be the emergence of a new actor in the Arctic geopolitical game, its stronger inclusion in Northern America integration processes and the renaissance of indigenous nationalism in Asian part of Russia.

   3.    Kurdistan, Iraq will occupy more than 40,000 square kilometers being populated by 4 million people. Newly independent state may be expanded up to 190,000 km²–390,000 km (due to the joining of Turkey’s and Iran’s parts of Kurdish ethnic regions) if geopolitical situation in the Middle East is fortunate.

    Reasons for secession of Iraq’s Kurdistan are the following: highly inefficient central government in Baghdad and desire to distance itself from troubling Arab part of the country, ethnic (Kurds are still the most populous non-state nation in the Middle East) and political (already existent autonomous state bodies).

      The consequences of independent Kurdistan will be enormous, especially for the security of Turkey and integrity of Kurd-populated neighbors which would be challenged significantly.

     4.     Flanders, Belgium will emerge as a result of ongoing political crisis of Belgian state, historical, language and economic differences between Flanders and Wallonia (Flanders is more economically advanced in comparison with other parts of present Belgium; unlikely Wallonia and Brussels, Flanders is predominantly Dutch speaking; last but not least, Flanders has its own long historical memory of independent state). Flanders will occupy more than 13,000 square kilometers with a population of about 6 million people. Flanders GDP will be higher than Hungary’s or Portugal’s. The implications of independent Flanders will be immense for European integration as it would be the first case of break-up of founding EU member state. Apart from that, it may strengthen the secessionist spirit in Spain, UK, France, Italy and Canada. 

 

   5.     Darfur, the present Sudan’s territory, has already seceded from the Nilo-Sudan politically, economically and emotionally because of marginalization and exclusion. Among other reasons to see the independent state of Darfur are historical background (independence during five centuries and forcible unification with Sudan) and failure of official Khartoum to end Darfur war lasting since 2003. The newly independent state will have the population of between 6 and 8 million people. The region covers an area of some 493,180 square kilometers—approximately the size of Spain. Meanwhile, it’s unlikely to have a prosperous Darfur in the near future. The main implications of Darfur’s secession are the feasible end of Darfur war and Intensification of secessionist movements in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Senegal.

  6.     New Caledonia, the present semi-dependent territory of France, is approximately half the size of Taiwan, it has a land area of 18,575 square kilometers. The population was estimated in January 2009 to be 249,000. New Caledonia is set to decide whether to remain within the French Republic as an autonomous overseas collectivity or become an independent state in a referendum to be held between 2014 and 2019. The main reasons to secede from France are the international pressure (UN) and voluntary will of official Paris, ethnic differences from mother country (indigenous people comprise almost the half of the population), geographical distance from France and economic self-sufficiency (due to the wealth of natural resources, especially nickel). The principal implications of independent New Caledonia will be the emergence of the third largest economy in Oceania (after Australia and New Zealand) and an impetus for other French and British dependencies to proclaim independence.

7.     Quebec, Canada will occupy more than 1,5 million square kilometers being populated by almost 8 million people. Quebec GDP will commensurate with Austria’s GDP. Reasons to secede from Canada are language differences (it’s French-speaking region as opposed to English-speaking Canada), political (existent autonomous bodies and  two referendums on independence) and religious (predominance of Roman Catholics).
                  

The main outcomes of independent Quebec will be the crisis of Northern American integration and the renaissance of language conflicts and language separatism in Cameroon, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Spain, Iran and Turkey.

     8.     Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, the present Russia’s region, will occupy 15,300 square kilometers that is commensurate with Israel’s area. The population of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria will be more than 1,1 million people. The reasons to secede will be the political crisis in Moscow that will engulf Russia into the third Caucasian war, religious, language and ethnic differences between the Chechens and the Russians, political and historical (live historical memory about independent state and violent wars). 

      Implications of Ichkeria’s independence will be significant for Caucasian geopolitics, in particular It will lead to the secession of some Russia’s regions: Dagestan, Ingushetia and possibly Buryatia and Tatarstan. Ichkeria’s independence will expand the boundaries of Islamic world and along with the independence of Dagestan will usher in the removal of Russia from Muslim Caucasus. Meanwhile, Ichkeria’s independence won’t reduce the work of international human rights groups as Chechens will lack democratic political culture.

   9.     Dagestan, Russia occupies almost 50,000 square kilometers being populated by 2,6 million people. Religious, ethnic, language, economic differences will lie in the root of secession from Russia. Political crisis in Moscow and the third Caucasian war will push Dagestan to independence. Among the implications of Dagestan’s sovereignty from Russia are the emergence of a state bigger in population and area than Moldova or Latvia, changes in Caucasian and Caspian geopolitics, in particular the step-up of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, serious challenges related to the unity of Dagestan (due to its multiethnic composure).

   10.  Ingushetia, Russia occupies only 3,500 square kilometers having a population of almost 500,000 people. It will be so far the smallest nation in the former Soviet Union. The reasons for secession are predominantly religious and ethnic (majority of people is Muslim, the Russian comprise only 5% of a total population). Political crisis in Moscow, the third Caucasian war and the proclamation of Ichkeria as an independent state will prompt Ingushetia’s elites to proclamation its sovereignty. Implication of Ingushetia’s independence will be the same as in the cases of Ichkeria and Dagestan. Meanwhile, Ingushetia backward economy may be a grave case for international aid organizations.

   11.  Tibet, the present China will occupy 1.2 million square kilometers being populated by only 3 million people. Historical memory of independence, ethnic and linguistic differences, political factors (already existing government in exile), international pressure lie in the basis of Tibet’s future independence. But only a political crisis in China will give a chance for Tibetan elite to accomplish its long-awaited end. Among the implications of Tibet’s independence will be the strengthening of separatism movement in the so called Seven Sister states of India, Kashmir and the forging of nationalism inside China.

    12.  Uyghurstan, China may appear on the territory of the present western Xinjiang where Uyghurs are the majority. Then, it will occupy about 600-700,000 square kilometers with a population of 9 million people. The reasons of secession will be obvious: ethnic, language and religious differences, marginalization within Chinese society, historical background of its own independence and historical glory. 


Implications of Uygurstan’s emergence on the political map will be bigger than in case of Tibet, especially due to strong tensions between Chinese and Uyghur in Xinjiang. The boundaries of a new state will be unclear through a long colonization of originally Uighur lands and attempts of a new Uighur government to restore old borders of Ughur’s ethnic area.

   13.  Kashmir, India/Pakistan. As we know, the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947 established the rough boundaries of today, with Pakistan holding roughly one-third of Kashmir, and India one-half, with a dividing line of control established by the United Nations. New state with a population of about 10 million people will primarily emerge in India’s part with the help of international community pushing Delhi to cease murderous Kashmir crisis. The principal impetuses for rebellion will be the strengthening of separatism in North Eastern India and emergence of Tibet and Uyghur sovereign nations close to India’s northern borders. India’s Kashmir may manage to unite with Pakistan’s Kashmir due to voluntary will of Pakistan hoping for a strong ally in the struggle against India.
 

 
  
  14.  Assam Federation, India will be the newly independent state due to economic marginalization, geographical distance from mainland India and a fresh historical memory of British Assam in the last two centuries. Language, ethnic and religious reasons will be less important during the decision to proclaim independence from Delhi. The main implication of Assam Federation’s emergence will be the reforms in India’s political system to avoid a total break-up of the multiethnic state. Besides, Assam Federation will lack political and social stability (due to its multiethnic and multi religion composure) that may become a headache for international community. The overall population of Assam Federation will exceed 45 million people.

15.  Southern Nigeria will become independent from the rest of Nigeria through its Christian population (unlike Muslim authorities of Abudja and Sharia-keeping Northern states), economic factors (uneven distribution of national wealth harming the interests of the South) and a long violent conflict in the Niger Delta. Southern Nigeria will occupy about 500,000 square kilometers with a population of 80 million people. The main consequences of Southern Sudan independence will be the drift of 80 mln. Northern Nigeria to a blatant Islamic authoritarianism and strained relations between Christian and Muslim population throughout Africa and South Eastern Asia.

  16.  Scotland may emerge on the world political map mainly due to historical memory, institutionalized state bodies and economic self-sufficiency. Ethnic and linguistic differences will be overshadowed by the above mentioned factors. Scotland’s secession will be very painful for the United Kingdom igniting a wave of English nationalism inside the country. Besides, it will mean the emergence of the new EU member state with a population of more than 5 million people. However, the emergence of Scotland sovereign state may be under question due to the soft ethnic and linguistic differences between English and Scots. 300 years interdependence of England and Scotland may be a substantial obstacle to independence.

   17.  Euscadi, Spain may secede from Spain within the borders of only one present Spanish region Pais Vasco, as a result of linguistic, ethnic discrepancies, historical background of the independent Basque state and socio-economic supremacy of the Basque area over other regions of Spain. The implications of Euscadi’s emergence will be the increase in separatism of Catalonia, Wales, Corsica and Padania. The population of Euscadi sovereign nation will exceed 2 million people and won’t include the Basque minority leaving in France and Navarra region of Spain. The independence of Euscadi may be postponed through the weak expansion of Basque language as a native language among Basques (not more than third of ethnic Basques call Basque language as their mother tongue) and dual pressure of 2 EU countries, France and Spain, to avoid full independence.

   18.  Catalunya, Spain may become the biggest newly independent state in Europe after the break-up of Yugoslavia. Its population will prevail 7,5 million and GDP will be commensurate with Greece. The reasons of secession will be similar to Basque’s reasons. Meanwhile, its implications for European and especially Mediterranean geopolitics will be enormous due to economic weight of the newly independent state. Nevertheless, Catalunya’s sovereignty may be under question because of the high inclusion of Catalan elites into the Spanish political and economic life.

Up to 2030 independence may also be achieved by the following nations:

       
        America:

1.     Cambas, Bolivia

2.     French Guiana, France

3.     Puerto Rico, USA

4.     Guadeloupe, France

5.     Martinique, France

6.     Aruba, Netherlands

7.     Cayman Islands, UK

8.     Virgin Islands, USA

       Asia/Eurasia:

1.     Buryatia, Russia

2.     Tatarstan, Russia

3.     Zhuang, China

Africa:

1.     Cabinda, Angola

2.     Reunion, France

3.     Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, Morocco

4.     Casamance, Senegal

5.     Republic of Southern Cameroon, Cameroon

6.     Tuareg state, Algeria, Mali, Niger

7.     Catanga, Congo

Europe:

1.     Paddania, Italy

2.     Gibraltar, UK

3.     Wales, UK

4.     Brittany, France

5.     Corsica, France

Oceania

1.       Polynesia, France