Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Рейтинг найкращих студентських міст світу

 

 Головні критерії рейтингу:
  1. Студентське розмаїття
  2. Якість життя
  3. Задоволення роботодавців якістю знань випускників
  4. Доступність навчання
Найдоступніші для освіти міста світу розташовані у континентальній Європі та в ісламському світі - Тулуза, Ліон, Відень, Берлін, Мюнхен, Каїр та Куала-Лумпур. 

Роботодавці найбільш задоволені якістю знань випускників у Сингапурі. Друге ж місце за цим показником посіла столиця Франції Париж.

Нью-Йорк, через дороге навчання та життя, розташувався лише на 18-у щаблі рейтингу, поступившись у Північній Америці Бостону, Монреалю, Чикаго та Сан-Франциско. В Азії найкращим студентським містом визнано Сингапур. Серед посткомуністичних країн найвище, 37-е місце, посіла Москва.

№1 - PARIS, France


 

    Top 500 universities in Paris:

  • ENS Paris;
  • Ecole Polytechnique ParisTech;
  • Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC);
  • Sciences Po Paris;
  • Université Paris-Sorbonne (ParisIV);
  • Université Paris-Sud II;
  • Université Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne;
  • Université Paris Diderot – Paris 7;
  • École des Ponts ParisTech;
  • Université Paris Descartes;
  • Université Paris Dauphine;
  • Université Panthéon-Assas (Paris 2);
  • Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense;
  • ESCP Europe;
  • ESSEC Business School, Paris;
  • HEC Paris

Student life in Paris

Unlike London and Boston, Paris does not have a global top 30 university, so it may come as a surprise to some that it ranks as the top city in the world for international students. But consider this: Paris has 16 institutions in the QS World University Rankings, comfortably more than any other city on the planet; international tuition fees are a fraction of those in the UK, Australia and North America; situated in the heart of Europe, Parisian graduates are targeted by a vast range of employers throughout the continent; and perhaps most importantly for students, all of this takes place in one of the most historic, culturally vital and beautiful cities imaginable. There's a reason why Paris is the most visited city in the world.

Elite Parisian universities such as ENS Paris, Ecole Polytechnique, Sciences Po and the Sorbonne have produced some of the most important philosophers, theorists, scientists, and mathematicians of the last 100 years, not to mention seminal movements in literature, film and art. Students often enjoy extensive access to leading academics, with small class sizes and intensive teaching belying the universities' low tuition fees. Paris is frequently rated as one of the most liveable cities in Europe, and it scores highly in the quality of living indicator. Perhaps the only real drawback for students is that socializing in Paris can be a costly affair – but then it's also a city that excels in the things that come for free.

№2 - LONDON, UK

 

Top 500 universities in London:

  • Imperial College London;
  • UCL (University College London);
  • King's College London (KCL);
  • London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE);
  • Queen Mary, University of London (QMUL);
  • Royal Holloway University of London;
  • SOAS – School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London;
  • Brunel University;
  • City University London;
  • Birkbeck College, University of London;
  • Goldsmiths, University of London;
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Student life in London

With Imperial and UCL ranked among the world's top ten universities, alongside LSE, which makes the top five for social sciences, perhaps only Boston can rival London's credentials as a nerve-centre of global academia. World-class facilities such as the British Library, with one of the most extensive and important collections of books and manuscripts in the world, make London a magnet for students and researchers from all over the planet. Yet London also offers far more to students as a city: one of the world's great centres of culture and creativity, famed for its nightlife and diversity, there aren't many things that you could hanker for as a student that aren't on offer in abundance in London.

London is one of the world's most important financial centres, so for corporate-minded graduates it is a land of opportunity. Yet it is also one of the most important cities in the world in media and the arts, as well as a host of other industries. London isn't getting any cheaper – for international students, tuition fees at the city's top universities approach those charged in the US, while home and EU undergraduate students will be affected by major fee increases implemented in 2012. And that's before you even start thinking about rent and living costs. Yet for many, the concentration of world-class universities and facilities, the professional and social opportunities, and a mind-boggling cultural confluence that mixes the corporate and the alternative, the historical and the cutting-edge, still makes studying in London worth every penny.

№ 3 - BOSTON, USA


 

Top 500 universities in Boston:

  • Harvard University;
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT);
  • Boston University;
  • Tufts University;
  • Brandeis University;
  • Boston College;
  • Northeastern University
Profile: Boston's two highest-ranked institutions are actually in neighbouring Cambridge, Massachusetts, part of the Greater Boston area but not the city proper. But let's face it, one of the things that make studying at Harvard or MIT so appealing – aside from the fact that they're two of the greatest universities in the world – is that you have Boston on your doorstep. And what a doorstep it is too. One of the most historic cities in the US, Boston combines the hustle and bustle of a major metropolis, and a happening arts, politics and culture scene, with an abundance of green open space and the stunning autumnal colours for which New England is famous.

Boston's cluster of historic universities has earned it the additional nickname, 'The Athens of America'. With Harvard and MIT ranked numbers two and three in the world and Boston University also in the global top 100, Boston/Cambridge scores predictably highly in the ranking indicator, but also ranks well for student mix, quality of living, and employer activity. The only major drawback is costs – the ticket prices at Harvard and MIT approach a gobsmacking US$50,000 per year, though in reality needs-blind admission and generous financial aid packages mean that many students pay significantly less than this.

№4 - MELBOURNE, Australia

 

Top 500 universities in Melbourne:

  • The University of Melbourne;
  • Monash University;
  • RMIT University;
  • La Trobe University;
  • Deakin University;
  • Swinburne University of Technologyä

About Melbourne

Higher education is Australia's number one services industry, and it's not hard to see why the nation is such a popular destination for international students: its combination of world-class universities, favourable employment prospects, high quality of life and idyllic climate doesn't take much selling. However, whereas Sydney is larger, Melbourne has a growing reputation for the quality of its universities, and now ranks as Australia's number one city for international students.

Found three times to be the world's most liveable city according to an annual survey by The Economist, a UNESCO city of literature, and home to the world's first ever feature film, Melbourne is Australia's cultural hub. With six global top 500 universities in a population of just over 4 million the city also has a high concentration of students for its size. The current strength of the Australian dollar means all of the nation's cities suffer in the affordability weighting, based on the Mercer and Big Mac cost indices alongside international tuition fees. However, take away the affordability score and Melbourne would finish above Paris, London and Boston, suggesting that, for those for whom it is a financial possibility, Melbourne provides just about the most favourable study environment around.

№5 - VIENNA, Austria


 

Top 500 universities in Vienna:

  • Universität Wien;
  • Technische Universität Wien

Profile: Vienna might not be the first city that springs to mind as a magnet for international students, but there's much more to the Austrian capital than fugues and psychoanalysis. Frequently ranked as one of the world's most liveable cities and with some of the lowest tuition fees around for international students, Vienna is also home to Austria's two highest-ranked universities, Universität Wien and Technische Universität Wien. One of Europe's most historical capitals, Austria is awash with cultural riches, from the theatres and concert halls that witnessed the earliest performances of masterpieces by Mozart, Beethoven and Schubert, to the Sigmund Freud Museum, and numerous galleries displaying the works of Viennese artists such as Gustave Klimt and Egon Schiele.

Vienna is helped into the top five in the QS Best Cities Ranking by its favourable student mix and its status as the top-scoring city for quality of living. With just two universities in the QS World University Rankings, the highest of which is Universität Wien at 155, Vienna may not be able to compete with the likes of London and Boston for those looking for world-class universities. However for students looking for high quality of living combined with culture and affordability, Vienna is pretty hard to beat.

№6 - SYDNEY, Australia


 

Top 500 universities in Sydney:

  • The University of Sydney;
  • The University of New South Wales (UNSW);
  • Macquarie University;
  • University of Technology, Sydney (UTS);
  • University of Western Sydney

Overview of student life in Sydney

Melbourne may lay claim to being Australia's city of culture, but it is Sydney that serves as its financial and economic hub. With the stunning panorama of Sydney Harbour, including its famous opera house, exotic parks dotted throughout the city, and some of the most renowned beaches on the planet well within striking distance, Sydney could lay a strong claim to be one of the most aesthetically pleasing of all major study destinations.
Like fellow Australian cities Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, Sydney's sun-kissed climate, prosperity and outdoor lifestyle mean it has among the highest scores for quality of living, having been ranked as one of the ten most liveable cities in the world by both Mercer and The Economist. And like Melbourne, it also features a high concentration of students relative to its population, with five universities ranked among the global top 500, of which University of Sydney and University of New South Wales make the top 100.


№7 - ZURICH, Switzerland


Top 500 universities in Zurich:

  • ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology);
  • University of Zurich
Profile:Renowned for its prosperity, orderliness and low taxes, Zurich may sound more like a place for millionaires than international students, but there is also a great deal to recommend it as a study destination. ETH Zurich is the highest ranked university in continental Europe and one of the top 20 in the world, while University of Zurich ranks 106. Situated on the banks of picturesque Lake Zurich and surrounded by dramatic scenery, the city has a calm and serene atmosphere, yet is enough of a global capital to be packed with things to do. It has frequently been ranked as one of the world's most liveable cities.

Zurich is also the wealthiest city in Europe, which brings with it both pros and cons for international students. On the one hand its affluence means Zurich is clean, safe and immaculately maintained, but on the other, living expenses can be eye-wateringly high. That said, while rent and socialising may cost a packet, tuition fees averaging around US$1,000-2,000 for international students represent a huge saving compared to comparably prestigious universities in the UK, North America or Australia.

№8 - BERLIN, Germany

 

Top 500 universities in Berlin:

  • Freie Universität Berlin;
  • Humboldt- Universität zu Berlin;
  • Technische Universität Berlin
Profile: Berlin can stake a credible claim to being one of the coolest cities in the world. During the past decade its cultural scene has flourished, turning it into a major centre of design, fashion, music and art to rival New York and London. More so than those cities however, Berlin is still easily affordable on a student budget, while also being enough of a global financial centre to appeal to those whose outlook is of a more corporate nature. Comfortably the most affordable city in the top ten, Berlin combines cheap rent and living costs with tuition of fees of just US$1,000-2,000 for both home and international students alike, representing a saving of thousands compared to universities in many other countries.

Though not an academic hub on the scale of London, Paris or Boston, Berlin is home to two global top 150 universities (Freie Universität Berlin, ranked 66, and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 132) as well as Technische Universität Berlin (205). It is also gaining a growing reputation as a destination for international students due in part to greater provision of courses in English, particularly at graduate level. With a high quality of living, affordability, a liberal atmosphere and a happening party scene, Berlin has a huge amount to offer international students of all interests and persuasions.

№8 - DUBLIN, Ireland


 

Top 500 universities in Dublin:

  • Trinity College Dublin (TCD);
  • University College Dublin (UCD);
  • Dublin City university (DCU);
  • Dublin Institute of Technology
Profile:For those whose idea of a perfect study destination involves combining top-class study facilities and historic surroundings with a cracking social scene and famously friendly locals, Dublin is your place. Cultural mainstays such as 'the craic', Guinness and St Patrick's Day may have spawned a global Irish cliché industry, but if you visit the real thing you'll see why there are so many imitations. Dublin has become a more multicultural and cosmopolitan place in the past two decades but at its heart remains a tradition and culture that is all its own.

Dublin's two oldest and most prestigious universities are Trinity College Dublin and University College Dublin, ranked 65 and 134 in the world respectively. Between them they have produced famous names in a range of disciplines, but they are perhaps best-known for their alumni authors: Samuel Beckett, James Joyce, Oscar Wilde, WB Yeats and many more. Dublin has a high concentration of students and a high ratio of international students, and is well ranked for its quality of living. On the negative side, tuition fees don't come cheap for international students (up to US $26,000 per year at TCD) and that's before you even calculate your Guinness budget.


№10 - MONTREAL, Canada

 

 

Top 500 universities in Montreal:

  • Université de Montréal;
  • Concordia University
Profile: Home to the nation's top institution, McGill University (ranked 17th in the world), Montreal has been dubbed the cultural capital of Canada, and one of the world's most liveable cities. As a French-speaking city in a largely English-speaking nation that has experienced mass immigration from all over the world in the past decades, Montreal has a distinctly hybrid culture. The site of several major international festivals including the Montreal International Jazz Festival and the world's largest comedy festival, Just for Laughs, Montreal also has a world-renowned indie music scene. It is also one of the three UNESCO design capitals of the world.

Montreal has one of the highest scores for quality of living, alongside a favourable student mix and rankings score, largely courtesy of the world-class status of McGill, with Universite de Montreal also making the global top 200 and Concordia University the top 600. Though tuition fees for international students are costly compared to the cheapest destinations such as continental Europe, they still compare favourably to those charged at many top universities in the UK, US and Australia. And for cost of living, Montreal is the best-value destination in the top ten behind Boston and Berlin.

№11 - BARCELONA, Spain


 

Top 500 universities in Barcelona:

  • Universitat de Barcelona (UB);
  • Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona;
  • Universitat Pompeu Fabra;
  • Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya;
  • ESADE Business School

Student life in Barcelona

With its sunny climate, sociable lifestyle, sandy beaches, renowned culinary tradition, long artistic and cultural legacy, stylish, cosmopolitan city centre and legendary party scene, Barcelona offers one of Europe’s most appealing environments in which to live and study. It is also home to Spain’s two most prestigious universities, Universitat de Barcelona and Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, which both rank in the global top 200, as well as three other institutions in the top 700. 

Barcelona is one of the most prosperous cities in Europe, yet living costs remain reasonable compared to the likes of London and Paris. Tuition costs are comparable to those in France, making Barcelona one of the most affordable of the leading student cities. The reputation of graduates of Barcelona’s universities among international employers is also strong, indicating positive employment prospects for international students who choose to study there.

№12 - SINGAPORE


 

Top 500 universities in Singapore:

  • National University of Singapore (NUS);
  • Nanyang Technological University (NTU)

Student life in Singapore

Small but densely populated, Singapore's reputation as a centre of educational excellence has flourished in recent years. National University of Singapore ranks third in Asia and 28th in the world, and the young but upwardly mobile Nanyang Technological University has broken into the global top 60, thanks in part to its recruitment of top international academics and students. Singapore's culture exhibits a blend of Chinese, Malay and Indian influences with four official languages, and this diversity is mirrored in the combined student body of its universities, which is among the most internationally diverse in the world.

Singapore is renowned for its prosperity and low levels of crime and unemployment. In keeping with its clean-cut, corporate reputation, Singapore graduates are much sought-after by international employers, especially throughout Asia. This will be good news for prospective students, because the downside to Singapore's high standard of living is correspondingly high prices. One thing you certainly won't need to shell out for in Singapore is central heating; its position next to the equator means it is equally scorching all year round. And if you fancy exchanging the concrete jungle for the real thing, Singapore is surrounded by tropical scenery, both throughout adjacent Malaysia, and in nearby exotic destinations such as Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines.

№13 - MUNICH, Germany


 

 Top 500 universities in Munich:

  • Technische Universität München;
  • Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Student life in Munich

Located deep in Germany's southernmost region Bavaria, Munich is the nation's third largest city, and its affluence and vibrancy have led it to be ranked as the most desirable in the nation in which to live. Of course, for many people outside of Germany, Munich is known first and foremost as the beer capital of the world – home to Oktoberfest, one of the world's biggest and booziest parties, which every year draws tourists in their hoards to quaff the local brew. This, of course, is unlikely to come as unwelcome news for many prospective students.

Local universities Technische Universität München and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München are among the best in continental Europe, ranking two and three in Germany, and 54 and 62 in the world respectively. With just two institutions, Munich may not have a particularly high volume of students, but it has a high ratio of international students and is one of the top ranking cities in the world for quality of living. As in all German universities, tuition fees are extremely low for domestic and international students alike, and although living costs tend to be slightly higher in Munich than they are in Berlin, this still makes it one of the most affordable student cities around.

№14 - LYON, France

 

 Top 500 universities in Lyon:

  • Ecole Normale Superiéure de Lyon;
  • Université Claud Bernard Lyon I;
  • Université Lumière Lyon 2;
  • Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3

Student life in Lyon

Positioned at the picturesque confluence of the Rhône and Saône rivers, with a charming medieval centre that is illuminated beautifully after dark, Lyon is known as the gastronomic capital of France – which is saying something. It is also home to one of the nation's top institutions, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon (ranked fourth in France and 133 in the world), plus three others that make the global top 700: Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Université Lumière Lyon 2 and Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3.

With four major universities in a city of under one and a half million, as you would expect Lyon has a buzzing student scene, and this is reflected in high scores for student mix, as well as quality of living. What's more, Lyon is also the most affordable student city in the top 20, with tuition fees of less than US$1,000 per year mixed with low living costs. Paris may steal the limelight with its cluster of famous institutions and iconic sights, but for those looking for a French study experience on a shoestring Lyon has plenty to recommend it.

№15 - CHICAGO, USA


 

  Top 500 universities in Chicago:

  • University of Chicago;
  • Northwestern University;
  • University of Illinois, Chicago (UIC);
  • Illinois Institute of Technology;
  • Loyola University Chicago

Student life in Chicago

Chicago is a fast-paced, high-rise economic hub, but it is also a city that famously knows how to let its hair down. Nicknamed 'The Windy City', an explosion of blues and jazz music during the 20th century gave the city a reputation as the north US's answer to New Orleans. Chicago is also home to two of the nation's most prestigious universities, the University of Chicago (ranked eighth in the world), and Northwestern University (ranked 24), plus three others that make the global top 600.

Chicago ranks as one of the top ten cities for the prestige of its universities, though scores less favourably for student mix and employer activity compared to the highest ranked student cities. As in other US cities, affordability is a weakness, driven primarily by the tuition fees charged by leading private institutions such as University of Chicago, which are among the highest in the world. That said, there is a reason why the top US universities are world leaders, and for many students the exceptional facilities on offer – alongside the myriad social and cultural opportunities offered by this bustling metropolis – will make studying in Chicago more than worth the investment.

№16 - MADRID, Spain


 

Top 500 universities in Madrid:

  • Universidad Autonóma de Madrid;
  • Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM);
  • Universidad Carlos III de Madrid;
  • Politécnica de Madrid

Student life in Madrid

Spain's capital and most populous city, Madrid is one of Europe's major financial, administrative and cultural centres, as well as being a tourist magnet with a legendary nightlife and gastronomic tradition. Home to the famous galacticos of Real Madrid, it also boasts some of the world's most important art galleries, such as the Prado, as well as a chic fashion scene. International students may be just as interested to know that the city is famed for its outgoing and sociable lifestyle: lengthy siestas, leisurely evenings socializing at the city's innumerable tapas bars, and late, late nights out at the weekends.

Madrid scores well above average in all of the indicators, its strongest aspects being quality of living and student mix. Academically, it offers four universities in the global top 500, led by Universidad Autónoma de Madrid at 222. Being a major European capital, as you might expect, the cost of living in Madrid is reasonably high. However, as in several other European countries, this is counterbalanced by affordable fees averaging between $2,000-4,000 per year for international undergraduate students.

№17 - SAN FRANCISCO, USA


 

Top 500 universities in San Francisco:

  • Stanford University;
  • University of California, Berkley (UCB);
  • University of California, San Francisco (UCSF)

Student Life in San Francisco

Lying adjacent to California's famed innovation hub Silicon Valley, San Francisco is within striking distance of two of the world's most prestigious universities, Stanford and Berkeley, as well as UC San Francisco. Made famous in the 1960s as the home of flower power, San Francisco remains one of the US's most iconic and frequently visited cities. With its famously laidback coastal lifestyle and sunny climate, San Francisco is also among the top-ranked cities in the world for quality of living. Not that it's all lounging about on the beach – one of the world's top ten financial centres, the San Francisco Bay Area is home to hundreds of cutting-edge technology companies including the likes of Apple, Facebook and IBM.

№18 - NEW YORK, USA


 

Top 500 universities in NY:

  • Columbia University;
  • New York University (NYU);
  • Rutgers – The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick;
  • Yeshiva University;
  • City University of New York;
  • University of Delaware;
  • Rutgers – The State University of New Jersey, Newark;
  • Stevens Institute of Technology;
  • Fordham University;
  • Rockefeller University

Student life in New York

With ten internationally ranked universities located in the New York area, the city has long been a magnet for thousands of international students seeking the finest education money can buy. Only Paris and London score higher for the quantity and quality of their universities. The main factor that stops New York from joining these cities at the very top of the table is a low score for cost of living, with top-dollar tuition fees combining with the soaring price of rent in this most sought-after of locations.

What is in little doubt is that for those for whom it is a financially viable option, New York offers a virtually inexhaustible supply of things to see and do. Home to many of the most important movers and shakers in world culture, business, finance and the media, and pulsating with energy 24/7, the Big Apple will keep throwing up enough surprises and new experiences to keep you going for an entire lifetime, let alone an undergraduate degree program.

№19 - TOKYO, Japan

 

 

  Top 500 universities in Tokyo:

  • The University of Tokyo;
  • Tokyo Institute of Technology;
  • Waseda University;
  • Keio University;
  • Tokyo University of Science;
  • Tokyo Medical and Dental University;
  • Tokyo Metropolitan University;
  • Ochanomizu University;
  • Aoyama Gakuin University;
  • Hitotsubashi University

Student life in Tokyo

For those who want to study amidst the hustle and bustle of the big city, they don't come much bigger and busier than Tokyo, the third most populous in the world. Such is the mind-blowing scale of the Japanese capital that even with ten internationally ranked universities it still has the lowest proportionate student population of any city in the top 50. Tokyo, then, is a city for those who favour total immersion in local culture rather than living in a student bubble.

Accordingly, life in Tokyo makes few concessions to a student budget: it has the lowest score for cost of living of any city in the top 50, and is rated by Mercer as the second most expensive city in the world for expatriate employees. However, the upshot of Tokyo's gargantuan size is that it offers one of the most varied and cosmopolitan living environments on earth. As one of the world's three financial epicentres alongside New York and London it also provides enviable professional and internship opportunities, and scores highly for both domestic and international employer activity.

 21- Milan, Italy

22 - Brisbane, Australia

23 - Seoul, Korea

24 - Buenos Aires, Argentina

25 - Perth, Australia

26 - Toronto, Canada

27 - Stockholm, Sweden

28 - Beijing, China

29 - Adelaide, Australia

30 - Washington DC, USA

31 - Vancouver, Canada

31 - Mexico City, Mexico

33 - Helsinki, Finland

34 - Taipei, Taiwan

35 - Manchester, UK

36 - Amsterdam, Netherlands

37 - Moscow, Russia

38 - Brussels, Belgium

39 - Shanghai, China

39 - Copenhagen, Denmark

41 - Santiago, Chile

42 - Philadelphia, USA

43 - Kyoto, Japan

44 - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

45 - Sao Paolo, Brazil

46 - Toulouse, France

47 - Birmingham, UK

48 - Cairo, Egypt

49 - Bangkok, Thailand

50 - Glasgow, UK

Source - topuniversities.com

Reasons why Israel is likely to attack Iran

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius created a tempest last week when he reported U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's prediction that Israel will attack Iran and its nuclear complex "in April, May or June." Ignatius's column was as startling as it was exasperating. When the sitting U.S. defense secretary -- presumably privy to facts not generally available to the public -- makes such a prediction, observers have good reasons to pay attention. On the other hand, the international community has been openly dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue for nearly a decade, with similar crescendos of anticipation having occurred before, all to no effect. Why would this time be different?

Further, an Israeli air campaign against Iran would seem like an amazingly reckless act. And an unnecessary one, too, since international sanctions against Iran's banks and oil market are just now tightening dramatically. 

Yet from Israel's point of view, time really has run out. The sanctions have come too late. And when Israeli policymakers consider their advantages and all of the alternatives available, an air campaign, while both regrettable and risky, is not reckless.
Here's why:

1. Time pressure
In his column, Ignatius mentioned this spring as the likely deadline for an Israeli strike. Why so soon? After all, the Iranian program is still under the supervision of IAEA inspectors and Iran has not made any moves to "break out" toward the production of bomb-grade highly enriched uranium.

But as a new report from the Bipartisan Policy Center discusses, Iran's uranium enrichment effort continues to advance, even after the Stuxnet computer attack and the assassination of several of its nuclear scientists. According to the report, Iran seems to be successfully installing advanced, high-efficiency uranium-enrichment centrifuges, which foreshadows a significant increase in enrichment capacity and output in the near future. More ominously from Israel's perspective, Iran is now installing centrifuge cascades into the Fordow mountain site near Qom, a bunker that is too deep for Israeli bombs to penetrate.

On-site IAEA inspectors are currently monitoring Iran's nuclear fuel production and would report any diversions to military use. As Tehran undoubtedly assumes, such a "breakout" (tossing out the inspectors and quickly enriching to the bomb-grade level) would be a casus belli, with air strikes from Israel likely to soon follow. Israeli leaders may have concluded that Iran could break out with impunity after the Fordow site is operational and the enrichment effort has produced enough low-enriched uranium feedstock for several bombs. According to the Bipartisan Center report, Iran will be in this position later this year. According to the New York Times, U.S. and Israeli officials differ over their calculations of when Iran will have crossed into a "zone of immunity." Given their more precarious position, it is understandable that Israeli policymakers are adopting a more conservative assessment. 

2. Alternatives to military action now fall short
Israeli leaders undoubtedly understand that starting a war is risky. There should be convincing reasons for discarding the non-military alternatives.

The international sanctions effort against Iran's banking system and oil industry are inflicting damage on the country's economy and seem to be delivering political punishment to the regime. But they have not slowed the nuclear program, nor are they likely to have any effect on the timeline described above. And as long as Russia, China, India, and others continue to support Iran economically and politically, the sanctions regime is unlikely to be harsh enough to change Israel's calculation of the risks, at least within a meaningful time frame.
Why can't Israel's secret but widely assumed nuclear arsenal deter an Iranian nuclear strike? Israel's territory and population are so small that even one nuclear blast would be devastating. Israel would very much like to possess a survivable and stabilizing second-strike retaliatory capability. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union achieved this mainly with their ballistic missile submarine fleets, which were always on patrol and held each others' cities at risk. Israel does not have large numbers of submarines or any nuclear-powered subs capable of long submerged patrols. Nor can it be confident that its policymakers or command-and-control systems would survive an Iranian nuclear first strike.

Even if Iran sought a nuclear weapons capability solely to establish its own defensive deterrent, the outcome would be gross instability in the region, very likely leading to one side or the other attempting a preemptive attack (the Iranian government denies that its nuclear program has a military purpose). Very short missile flight times, fragile early-warning and command systems, and no survivable second-strike forces would lead to a hair-trigger "use it or lose it" dynamic. An Israeli attack now on Iran's nuclear program would be an attempt to prevent this situation from occurring.

3. The benefits of escalation
A strike on Iran's nuclear complex would be at the outer boundary of the Israeli Air Force's capabilities. The important targets in Iran are near the maximum range of Israel's fighter-bombers. The fact that Iraq's airspace, on the direct line between Israel and Iran, is for now undefended is one more reason why Israel's leaders would want to strike sooner rather than later. Israel's small inventory of bunker-buster bombs may damage the underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, but they will likely have no effect on the Fordow mountain complex. Iran has undoubtedly dispersed and hidden many other nuclear facilities. An Israeli strike is thus likely to have only a limited and temporary effect on Iran's nuclear program.
If so, why bother, especially when such a strike risks sparking a wider war? Israel's leaders may actually prefer a wider escalating conflict, especially before Iran becomes a nuclear weapons state. Under this theory, Israel would take the first shot with a narrowly tailored attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. 

Paradoxically, Israel's leaders might then prefer Iranian retaliation, which would then give Israel the justification for broader strikes against Iran's oil industry, power grid, and communication systems. Even better if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz or attack U.S. forces in the region, which would bring U.S. Central Command into the war and result in even more punishment for Iran. Israel's leaders may believe that they enjoy "escalation dominance," meaning that the more the war escalates, the worse the consequences for Iran compared to Israel. Israel raided Iraq's nuclear program in 1981 and Syria's in 2007. Neither Saddam Hussein nor Bashar al-Assad opted to retaliate, very likely because both knew that Israel, with its air power, possessed escalation dominance. Israel's leaders have good reason to assume that Iran's leaders will reach the same conclusion.

What about the rockets possessed by Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran's proxies north and south of Israel's population centers? Israel's leaders may believe that they are much better prepared to respond to these threats than they were in 2006, when the Israeli army struggled against Hezbollah. There is no guarantee that Hezbollah and Hamas will follow orders from Tehran to attack -- they understand the punishment the reformed Israeli army would inflict. Hezbollah may now have an excellent reason to exercise caution. Should the Assad regime in Damascus collapse, Hezbollah would likely lose its most important protector and could soon find itself cut off and surrounded by enemies. It would thus be a particularly bad time for Hezbollah to invite an Israeli ground assault into southern Lebanon.
4. Managing the endgame
An Israeli raid on Iran's nuclear complex would probably not lead to the permanent collapse of the program. Iran could dig out the entrances to the Fordow site and establish new covert research and production facilities elsewhere, perhaps in bunkers dug under residential areas. Israel inflicted a major setback on Iraq's program when it destroyed the unfinished Osirak reactor in 1981. Even so, Saddam Hussein covertly restarted the program. Israel should expect the same persistence from Iran.

So is there any favorable end-state for Israel? Israeli leaders may envision a long term war of attrition against Iran's program, hoping to slow its progress to a crawl while waiting for regime change in Tehran. Through sporadic follow-up strikes against nuclear targets, Israel would attempt to demoralize the industry's workforce, disrupt its operations, and greatly increase the costs of the program. Israeli leaders might hope that their attrition tactics, delivered through occasional air strikes, would bog down the nuclear program while international sanctions weaken the civilian economy and reduce political support for the regime. The stable and favorable outcome for Israel would be either Tehran's abandonment of its nuclear program or an internal rebellion against the regime. Israel would be counting more on hope rather than a convincing set of actions to achieve these outcomes. But the imperative now for Israel is to halt the program, especially since no one else is under the same time pressure they are.

Israel should expect Tehran to mount a vigorous defense. Iran would attempt to acquire modern air defense systems from Russia or China. It would attempt to rally international support against Israeli aggression and get its international sanctions lifted and imposed on Israel instead. An Israeli assault on Iran would disrupt oil and financial markets with harmful consequences for the global economy. Israel would take the blame, with adverse political and economic consequences to follow. 

But none of these consequences are likely enough to dissuade Israel from attacking. A nuclear capability is a red line that Israel has twice prevented its opponents from crossing. Iran won't get across the line either. Just as happened in 1981 and 2007, Israel's leaders have good reasons to conclude that its possession of escalation dominance will minimize the worst concerns about retaliation. Perhaps most importantly, Israel is under the greatest time pressure, which is why it will have to go it alone and start what will be a long and nerve-wracking war.

Source - Foreign Policy

Poland's Energy Sector and Russia's Position: Part 1


JANEK SKARZYNSKI/AFP/Getty Images
Grupa Lotos refinery in Gdansk, Poland

That Poland depends on Russia for energy resources, particularly oil and natural gas, gives Moscow political leverage over Warsaw. However, significant natural gas development could help Poland reduce its dependence on Russia, meet EU environmental standards and boost its regional power as a possible natural gas exporter. Polish energy diversification projects -- liquefied natural gas import terminal construction and shale gas development -- embody this strategy, which could change the Russia-Poland relationship in the coming years.

Analysis
Like most Central and Eastern European countries, Poland depends heavily on Russia for energy supplies. Similar to its strategy concerning other European countries, Russia uses this dependence as a political tool and in the past has implemented energy cutoffs and politically motivated pricing mechanisms to exert its influence in the region. However, diversification efforts in Poland and policy changes in the European Union likely will affect Russia's position in Poland's energy sector, as well as Russia's political heft in both Poland and the wider region.

Poland is in a better position than many other Central and Eastern European countries concerning energy production. Poland is a major coal producer, and coal comprises a significant portion of Poland's primary energy supply. The country also has some domestic natural gas production, whereas many other Central and Eastern European countries rely completely on Russia for natural gas. However, Russian oil and natural gas imports amount to nearly half of Poland's primary energy supply, and these inputs are set to grow as Polish energy demand increases and Warsaw continues to diversify away from coal for numerous reasons.

Still, Poland is unique in Central and Eastern Europe in that it is following through with significant diversification projects, such as the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal. Poland also has the potential to further diversify through shale gas resource development (though prospects for this are much less clear).

Poland's Energy Supply
A breakdown of Poland's energy supply is necessary in order to accurately gauge Russia's influence in the sector and add context to Warsaw's diversification efforts.

Historically, coal has been the most important energy source in Poland. The country's three largest coal-mining companies -- Weglokoks, Kompania Weglowa and Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa -- extract approximately 100 million tons of coal per year. Coal makes up more than 50 percent of Poland's primary energy supply and roughly 85 percent of the country's electricity generation. However, diversification away from coal to natural gas and other energy sources in order to meet the EU environmental standards is becoming a priority for Warsaw.

Oil is another important energy source in Poland, comprising 26 percent of the country's primary energy supply. Poland's demand was 535,000 barrels per day in 2009. The country imports almost all of its crude oil, including 94 percent from Russia, mainly via the Druzhba pipeline. Poland depends less on Russia for refined products, however, importing roughly 25 percent. Poland has six refineries, with PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos the major Polish companies responsible for refining and fuel stations.

Poland's third major energy source is natural gas, which makes up 13 percent of the country's primary energy supply and 3 percent of its electricity generation. Poland produced 5.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2009, or 37 percent of the country's total demand of 15.8 bcm. PGNiG is the main Polish natural gas company, responsible for 98 percent of domestic natural gas production while serving as Poland's only natural gas importer, only operator of the country's underground natural gas storage capacity and effective controller of the wholesale natural gas market.

Although natural gas is the smallest major energy input in Poland, it is in many ways the most strategic to the region. Unlike oil, natural gas cannot be delivered via tanker unless it is liquefied, which limits the number of suppliers in Central and Eastern Europe. Currently there are no operational LNG terminals in the region, so the only regional delivery method is through pipeline. And the current pipeline infrastructure dictates that the dominant natural gas supplier for Central and Eastern Europe -- including Poland -- is Russia.

In 2010, Poland imported 10 bcm of natural gas from Russia, or 82 percent of Poland's imports, via the Yamal pipeline. An additional 1 bcm (11 percent) is Russian natual gas transited through Germany, meaning that Poland depends on Russia for virtually all of its natural gas imports. This dependence is expected to grow; PGNiG signed a ten-year contract with Russian energy giant Gazprom in October 2010 to import 11 bcm starting in 2012. The deal also made Polish State Treasury-owned Gaz-System -- established in 2004 as an independent transmission system operator as a result of PGNiG's unbundling -- the operator of the Yamal pipeline in Poland (Gaz-System previously owned and operated all the natural gas transmission and distribution pipelines in Poland except Yamal, which was previously owned by EuRoPol Gaz).

Diversification Projects
As Poland has sought more energy independence from Russia, Warsaw has begun pursuing two key areas of energy diversification: LNG and shale gas.

LNG is Poland's primary diversification priority in the near to mid-term. The first LNG import terminal in Central and Eastern Europe is under construction in the northern Polish town of Swinoujscie. Polskie LNG, a subsidiary of Gaz-System, is constructing the terminal and will operate it upon its 2014 completion. The terminal will have a capacity of 5 bcm, with the possibility of expansion to 7.5 bcm at a later date.

The terminal will allow Poland to access numerous LNG providers and purchase natural gas that is roughly $100-150 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) cheaper than Russian natural gas (industry estimates for LNG are currently in the $290-$350 per tcm range, while Poland pays $500 per tcm for Russian natural gas). PGNiG and Qatargas signed a 20-year agreement in 2009 for the purchase of 1.5 bcm per year beginning in 2014. While long-term contracts such as the Qatargas deal are the traditional mode of sale for LNG, Poland likely will reserve the option of spot purchasing as well. The Swinoujscie terminal's 5 bcm capacity could nearly halve Poland's dependence on Russia for natural gas in the next few years, significantly contributing to Poland's energy diversification. However, this assumes that the country will use all 5 bcm to cut imports from Russia and that demand will not grow, both of which are unlikely. But, while it might not fully shift the energy balance, the terminal will certainly lessen the pressure Poland feels from Russia and the leverage Moscow has over Warsaw.

In the longer term, Poland is focused on developing its unconventional natural gas resources, including shale gas. Since shale gas development began in Poland in 2009, more than 100 concessions have been issued to both domestic companies and larger international companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Marathon. Preliminary estimates suggest that Poland could have 1.4-5 tcm of shale gas, the development of which could change Poland's energy situation dramatically.

However, there are numerous obstacles to the commercialization of shale gas -- including capital intensiveness, environmental concerns and the proximity of resources to existing distribution infrastructure -- and early testing and drilling has not been a smooth process. ExxonMobil reported in early February that two initial wells undergoing exploratory drilling had "insufficient amounts of gas" for commercial exploitation. However, ExxonMobil subsequently said it would drill another six wells, demonstrating its commitment to the process. Similarly, PGNiG is boosting upstream investment in shale development, and there have been some promising early results from companies such as Dublin-based San Leon Energy.

A recent corruption scandal about the shale gas concessions awarding process led to charges filed against several government officials, but the incident is unlikely to hamper development since the resource is broadly popular with the Polish public. Its popularity is rooted in the potential for shale gas to become a strategic boon for Poland. Development could rid the country of its dependence on Russia and possibly make Poland a natural gas exporter to other Central and Eastern European countries, thus contributing to Poland's role as a regional leader. But shale gas development is a long-term process that -- unlike LNG -- does not have a set date to come online, and it could prove unprofitable.

Source - Stratfor