Mexico's 2012 upcoming presidential elections

For many Mexicans, the transition to democracy since 2000 has become a synonym for political paralysis. The actors lack incentives beyond those that drive their own short-term interests. Faced with a growing disenchantment with the results of this imperfect democracy, nostalgia for the past has taken on a romantic appearance. “They may have been corrupt, but they knew how to govern” is a phrase that you now often hear over dinner table in homes throughout Mexico.

That nostalgia for the past has positioned the PRI as the favourite for the elections without its so much as having to wash its face.

However, 12 years of alternating power has forever changed citizens’ attitudes, strengthened some institutions and shaken up the de facto powers – all sufficiently to make it difficult to return to an authoritarian regime.

The result of the 2012 elections will push one way or the other. If the PRI wins with such a big margin that it ends up controlling Congress, the temptation for Peña Nieto to become a Mexican Putin will be immense. The public’s yearning for a crack-down on organised crime will only encourage him further. The deterioration of the security situation in Mexico is a tailor-made alibi for an authoritarian government and a big win would look like a blank cheque sent directly from the people.

But a narrow victory would leave Congress divided and would force the new administration to negotiate its agenda with the opposition. That would make the emergence of an all-powerful government much more difficult.

Financial Times